Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Six High-Burden Countries.
The new Coronavirus Disease 19, officially known as COVID-19, originated in China in 2019 and has since spread worldwide. We presented an age-structured Susceptible-Latent-Mild-Critical-Removed (SLMCR) compartmental model of COVID-19 disease transmission with nonlinear incidence during the pandemic...
| Publicado en: | BioMed Research International pp. 1 - 18 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Wiley-Blackwell
6/2/2021
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=150637845&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 150637845 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 23146133 FT2T jtl: BioMed Research International issn: 23146133 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: 6/2/2021 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell place: Malden, Massachusetts artinfo: ui: 150637845 150637845 150637845 10.1155/2021/5089184 150637845 ppf: 1 ppct: 17 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Six High-Burden Countries. aug: au: Rahman, Azizur Kuddus, Md Abdul affil: Data Science Research Unit, School of Computing and Mathematics, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia sug: subj: COVID-19 Pandemic Disease Transmission Human Australia Italy Spain United States United Kingdom Canada Sensitivity and Specificity Correlation Coefficient Decision Making Politics ab: The new Coronavirus Disease 19, officially known as COVID-19, originated in China in 2019 and has since spread worldwide. We presented an age-structured Susceptible-Latent-Mild-Critical-Removed (SLMCR) compartmental model of COVID-19 disease transmission with nonlinear incidence during the pandemic period. We provided the model calibration to estimate parameters with day-wise COVID-19 data, i.e., reported cases by worldometer from 15th February to 30th March 2020 in six high-burden countries, including Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada. We estimate transmission rates for each country and found that the country with the highest transmission rate is Spain, which may increase the new cases and deaths than the other countries. We found that saturation infection negatively impacted the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in all the six high-burden countries. The study used a sensitivity analysis to identify the most critical parameters through the partial rank correlation coefficient method. We found that the transmission rate of COVID-19 had the most significant influence on prevalence. The prediction of new cases in COVID-19 until 30th April 2020 using the developed model was also provided with recommendations to control strategies of COVID-19. We also found that adults are more susceptible to infection than both children and older people in all six countries. However, in Italy, Spain, the UK, and Canada, older people show more susceptibility to infection than children, opposite to the case in Australia and the USA. The information generated from this study would be helpful to the decision-makers of various organisations across the world, including the Ministry of Health in Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada, to control COVID-19. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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