Making Confident Decisions with Model Ensembles.
Many policy decisions take input from collections of scientific models. Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework the so-called confidence approach to tackle decision-making under severe uncertainty with multiple models, and we illustrate the approach with a...
| Publicado en: | Philosophy of Science Vol. 88; no. 3; pp. 439 - 461 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Cambridge University Press
Jul2021
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=150964815&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 150964815 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00318248 PSC jtl: Philosophy of Science issn: 00318248 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Jul2021 vid: 88 iid: 3 pid: 15979 pub: Cambridge University Press artinfo: ui: 150964815 10.1086/712818 ppf: 439 ppct: 22 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 228KB tig: atl: Making Confident Decisions with Model Ensembles. aug: au: Roussos, Joe Bradley, Richard Frigg, Roman su: Decision making Scientific models Uncertainty Hurricanes Confidence sug: subj: Decision making Scientific models Uncertainty Hurricanes Confidence ab: Many policy decisions take input from collections of scientific models. Such decisions face significant and often poorly understood uncertainty. We rework the so-called confidence approach to tackle decision-making under severe uncertainty with multiple models, and we illustrate the approach with a case study: insurance pricing using hurricane models. The confidence approach has important consequences for this case and offers a powerful framework for a wide class of problems. We end by discussing different ways in which model ensembles can feed information into the approach, appropriate to different collections of models. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Copyright of Philosophy of Science is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. item: Philosophy of Science holder: Cambridge University Press dt: @attributes: year: 2021 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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