You say you want a revolution: two notions of probabilistic independence.

Branden Fitelson and Alan Hájek have suggested that it is finally time for a "revolution" in which we jettison Kolmogorov's axiomatization of probability, and move to an alternative like Popper's. According to these authors, not only did Kolmogorov fail to give an adequate analysis of conditional pr...

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Publicado en:Philosophical Studies Vol. 178; no. 10; pp. 3319 - 3352
Autor principal: Meehan, Alexander
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Oct2021
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        10.1007/s11098-021-01603-6
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        atl: You say you want a revolution: two notions of probabilistic independence.
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        au: Meehan, Alexander
        affil: Department of Philosophy, Princeton University, 08544, Princeton, NJ, USA
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        Mixture distributions (Probability theory)
        Fitelson, Branden
        Easwaran, Kenny
        Epistemics
        Theory of knowledge
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          Mixture distributions (Probability theory)
          Fitelson, Branden
          Easwaran, Kenny
          Epistemics
          Theory of knowledge
      keyword:
        Conditional probability
        Kolmogorov's foundations
        Null conditioning
        Probabilistic independence
        Proper regular conditional distributions
      ab: Branden Fitelson and Alan Hájek have suggested that it is finally time for a "revolution" in which we jettison Kolmogorov's axiomatization of probability, and move to an alternative like Popper's. According to these authors, not only did Kolmogorov fail to give an adequate analysis of conditional probability, he also failed to give an adequate account of another central notion in probability theory: probabilistic independence. This paper defends Kolmogorov, with a focus on this independence charge. I show that Kolmogorov's sophisticated theory of conditional distributions, advocated by authors such as Kenny Easwaran but often overlooked by philosophers, has the resources to define the notion of independence Fitelson and Hájek seek. I then argue that Kolmogorov's original definition of independence, once suitably reinterpreted as capturing a slight logical weakening of this notion, is not so problematic after all. Indeed, rather than discarding Kolmogorov's definition, we should make room for two distinct notions of probabilistic independence, one stronger and one weaker, which play different theoretical roles.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
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    language: English
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