Economic turbulence and labour migrants' mobility intentions: Polish migrants in the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands and Germany 2009–2016.

Economists view earnings as a primary driver of migration, both actual and intended. However, studies on the relationship between migration intentions and earnings yield mixed results. We argue that earnings are an important factor, but that problems related to sample selection and the complexity of...

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Publicado en:Journal of Ethnic & Migration Studies Vol. 47; no. 17; pp. 3928 - 3948
Autores principales: Jancewicz, Barbara, Markowski, Stefan
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Taylor & Francis Ltd October 2021
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: October 2021
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        10.1080/1369183X.2019.1656059
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        atl: Economic turbulence and labour migrants' mobility intentions: Polish migrants in the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands and Germany 2009–2016.
      aug:
        au:
          Jancewicz, Barbara
          Markowski, Stefan
        affil: Centre of Migration Research, The University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
      su:
        Migrant agricultural workers
        Labor mobility
        Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
        Immigrants
        Poland
      sug:
        subj:
          Poland
          Migrant agricultural workers
          Labor mobility
          Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009
          Immigrants
      keyword:
        economics of migration
        Migration intentions
        return migration
        return migration intentions
      ab: Economists view earnings as a primary driver of migration, both actual and intended. However, studies on the relationship between migration intentions and earnings yield mixed results. We argue that earnings are an important factor, but that problems related to sample selection and the complexity of migration decision making obscure this importance. Nevertheless, periods of economic turbulence prompt people to reassess their economic situation and when a study is conducted after such economic shock, it surveys migrants who had enough time to revise their mobility intentions but who had not already moved. We used data on remain/move intentions of Polish labour migrants to the UK, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands in 2009–2016. This was a period of high economic turbulence in the four host countries (Global Financial Crisis, the Euro crises and the Brexit referendum) paralleled by a period of steady improvement for the Polish economy. We applied multinomial logistic regression to probe the Polish migrants' return/settlement intentions, our results show that, in general, higher earnings encourage settlement intentions. However, as expected, this influence tends to fade away from view in times of economic calm but gains in importance when unexpected shocks force migrants to re-evaluate their plans.
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    language: English
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