How to be imprecise and yet immune to sure loss.

Towards the end of Decision Theory with a Human Face (2017), Richard Bradley discusses various ways a rational yet human agent, who, due to lack of evidence, is unable to make some fine-grained credibility judgments, may nonetheless make systematic decisions. One proposal is that such an agent can s...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Publicado en:Synthese Vol. 199; no. 1/2; pp. 427 - 445
Autor principal: Steele, Katie
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Dec2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
fields @attributes:
  recordID: 1
pdfLink:
plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=153650790&site=ehost-live
header:
  @attributes:
    shortDbName: hlh
    uiTerm: 153650790
    longDbName: Humanities International Complete
    uiTag: AN
  controlInfo:
    bkinfo:
    jinfo:
      jid:
        00397857
        4LI
      jtl: Synthese
      issn: 00397857
      maglogo: N
    pubinfo:
      dt: Dec2021
      vid: 199
      iid: 1/2
      pid: 237
      pub: Springer Nature
    artinfo:
      ui:
        153650790
        10.1007/s11229-020-02665-5
      ppf: 427
      ppct: 18
      formats:
        fmt:
          – @attributes:
              type: T
          – @attributes:
              type: P
              size: 421KB
      tig:
        atl: How to be imprecise and yet immune to sure loss.
      aug:
        au: Steele, Katie
        affil: School of Philosophy, Australian National University, 2600, Canberra, ACT, Australia
      su:
        Decision theory
        Set functions
        Decision making
        Probability theory
      sug:
        subj:
          Decision theory
          Set functions
          Decision making
          Probability theory
      ab: Towards the end of Decision Theory with a Human Face (2017), Richard Bradley discusses various ways a rational yet human agent, who, due to lack of evidence, is unable to make some fine-grained credibility judgments, may nonetheless make systematic decisions. One proposal is that such an agent can simply "reach judgments" on the fly, as needed for decision making. In effect, she can adopt a precise probability function to serve as proxy for her imprecise credences (or set of probability functions) at the point of decision, and then subsequently abandon the proxy as she proceeds to learn more about the world. Contra Bradley, I argue that an agent who employs this strategy does not necessarily act like a precise Bayesian, since she is not necessarily immune to sure loss in diachronic, as well as synchronic, settings. I go on to suggest a method for determining a proxy probability function (via geometric averaging) whereby the agent does act like a precise Bayesian, so understood.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
    refInfo:
    copyright:
      @attributes:
        flag: Y
      custom: Synthese is a copyright of Springer, 2021. All Rights Reserved.
      item: Synthese
      holder: Springer Nature
      dt:
        @attributes:
          year: 2021
    holdings:
      @attributes:
        islocal: N