Scoring, truthlikeness, and value.
There is an ongoing debate about which rule we ought to use for scoring probability estimates. Much of this debate has been premised on scoring-rule monism, according to which there is exactly one best scoring rule. In previous work, I have argued against this position. The argument given there was...
| Publicado en: | Synthese Vol. 199; no. 3/4; pp. 8281 - 8299 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Springer Nature
Dec2021
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=154096812&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 154096812 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00397857 4LI jtl: Synthese issn: 00397857 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2021 vid: 199 iid: 3/4 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 154096812 10.1007/s11229-021-03162-z ppf: 8281 ppct: 18 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 481KB tig: atl: Scoring, truthlikeness, and value. aug: au: Douven, Igor affil: IHPST/CNRS/Panthéon–Sorbonne, Paris, France su: Intuition Monism A priori Argument Hypothesis sug: subj: Intuition Monism A priori Argument Hypothesis keyword: Forecasts Scoring rules Truthlikeness Value ab: There is an ongoing debate about which rule we ought to use for scoring probability estimates. Much of this debate has been premised on scoring-rule monism, according to which there is exactly one best scoring rule. In previous work, I have argued against this position. The argument given there was based on purely a priori considerations, notably the intuition that scoring rules should be sensitive to truthlikeness relations if, and only if, such relations are present among whichever hypotheses are at issue. The present paper offers a new, quasi-empirical argument against scoring-rule monism. This argument uses computational simulations to show that different scoring rules can have different economical consequences, depending on the context of use. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Synthese is a copyright of Springer, 2021. All Rights Reserved. item: Synthese holder: Springer Nature dt: @attributes: year: 2021 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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