Data‐driven identification in SVARs—When and how can statistical characteristics be used to unravel causal relationships?

Structural vector autoregressive analysis aims to trace the contemporaneous linkages among multiple economic time series back to underlying orthogonal structural shocks. Traditionally, researchers rely on economically motivated restrictions to identify these shocks. However, in the presence of heter...

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Publicado en:Economic Inquiry Vol. 60; no. 2; pp. 668 - 694
Autores principales: Herwartz, Helmut, Lange, Alexander, Maxand, Simone
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Wiley-Blackwell Apr2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        atl: Data‐driven identification in SVARs—When and how can statistical characteristics be used to unravel causal relationships?
      aug:
        au:
          Herwartz, Helmut
          Lange, Alexander
          Maxand, Simone
        affil:
          Department of Economics, University of Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany
          Department of Economics, Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
      su:
        Trace analysis
        Time series analysis
        Vector analysis
        Heteroscedasticity
        Data structures
      sug:
        subj:
          Trace analysis
          Time series analysis
          Vector analysis
          Heteroscedasticity
          Data structures
      keyword:
        heteroskedasticity
        independent components
        model selection
        non‐Gaussianity
        structural shocks
        heteroskedasticity
        independent components
        model selection
        non‐Gaussianity
        structural shocks
      ab: Structural vector autoregressive analysis aims to trace the contemporaneous linkages among multiple economic time series back to underlying orthogonal structural shocks. Traditionally, researchers rely on economically motivated restrictions to identify these shocks. However, in the presence of heteroskedasticity or non‐Gaussian independent components, only these statistical properties allow a locally unique identification. In this paper, we compare alternative statistical identification procedures under distinct covariance changes and distributional frameworks. We find that statistical identification schemes are robust under distinct data structures to some extent and support researchers in detecting shocks that feature an economic underpinning. The detection of independent components appears most flexible.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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