| Sumario: | The objective of this study consists of analysing the role of protection incidents on migration aspirations and destination preferences of refugees and migrants in Libya. We use a unique dataset that combines the 4Mi micro-level data from the Mixed Migration Centre with traditional macro-level variables. The micro-founded gravity equation allows using McFadden's choice model that explains whether the experience of persecution in the origin country and protection incident in Libya shape onward migration aspirations and destination preferences of people on the move. Main results show first that refugees and migrants who reported having experienced persecution in their origin country that made them leave are more likely to aspire to migrate onward to Europe. Second, having experienced protection abuses in Libya increases onward migration aspirations to migrate to France, Germany, Sweden or the UK, but not to Italy. The findings call for comprehensive, contextualised and tailored approaches to programme and policy interventions that aim to provide long-term solutions, assistance and protection to people on the move. They also call for early warning and information systems in forced migration which would relate to the situation in countries of origin and transit.
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