COVID's collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States.
Background: Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles.Methods: To measure...
| Publicado en: | BMC Infectious Diseases Vol. 22; no. 1; pp. 1 - 19 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
BioMed Central
9/20/2022
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=159212608&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 159212608 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 14712334 1CHU jtl: BMC Infectious Diseases issn: 14712334 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: 9/20/2022 vid: 22 iid: 1 pid: 24147 pub: BioMed Central artinfo: ui: 159212608 159212608 NLM36127637 10.1186/s12879-022-07703-w NLM36127637 159212608 ppf: 1 ppct: 18 formats: tig: atl: COVID's collateral damage: likelihood of measles resurgence in the United States. aug: au: Thakur, Mugdha Zhou, Richard Mohan, Mukundan Marathe, Achla Chen, Jiangzhuo Hoops, Stefan Machi, Dustin Lewis, Bryan Vullikanti, Anil affil: Biocomplexity Institute, Town Center Four, 994 Research Park Boulevard, 22904, Charlottesville, VA, USA sug: ab: Background: Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles.Methods: To measure the potential impact of reduced MMR vaccination rates on measles outbreak, this research examines several counterfactual scenarios in pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era. An agent-based modeling framework is used to simulate the spread of measles on a synthetic yet realistic social network of Virginia. The change in vulnerability of various communities to measles due to reduced MMR rate is analyzed.Results: Results show that a decrease in vaccination rate [Formula: see text] has a highly non-linear effect on the number of measles cases and this effect grows exponentially beyond a threshold [Formula: see text]. At low vaccination rates, faster isolation of cases and higher compliance to home-isolation are not enough to control the outbreak. The overall impact on urban and rural counties is proportional to their population size but the younger children, African Americans and American Indians are disproportionately infected and hence are more vulnerable to the reduction in the vaccination rate.Conclusions: At low vaccination rates, broader interventions are needed to control the outbreak. Identifying the cause of the decline in vaccination rates (e.g., low income) can help design targeted interventions which can dampen the disproportional impact on more vulnerable populations and reduce disparities in health. Per capita burden of the potential measles resurgence is equivalent in the rural and the urban communities and hence proportionally equitable public health resources should be allocated to rural regions. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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