U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition.

The tech war is having an effect on U.S.-China trade. For high-tech products like telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, and computer accessories, there has been a sharp drop in trade in both directions. This is not simply a drop in demand in the U.S. for these items because imports of them f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:China Economic Journal Vol. 15; no. 3; pp. 277 - 290
Main Author: Dollar, David
Format: Article
Published: Taylor & Francis Ltd Oct2022
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: Oct2022
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      pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd
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        10.1080/17538963.2022.2117185
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        atl: U.S.-China trade relations in an era of great power competition.
      aug:
        au: Dollar, David
        affil: China Center, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, USA
      su:
        China
        Vietnam
        Great powers (International relations)
        China-United States relations
        Telecommunication equipment
        Developed countries
        Computer peripherals
      sug:
        subj:
          China
          Vietnam
          Computer Terminal and Other Computer Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing
          Computer and Office Machine Repair and Maintenance
          Computer and software stores
          Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing
          Computer, computer peripheral and pre-packaged software merchant wholesalers
          Computer and Computer Peripheral Equipment and Software Merchant Wholesalers
          Other Electronic Parts and Equipment Merchant Wholesalers
          Electrical Contractors and Other Wiring Installation Contractors
          Other telecommunications
          Telecommunications Resellers
          All Other Telecommunications
          Communication Equipment Repair and Maintenance
          Other Communications Equipment Manufacturing
          Great powers (International relations)
          China-United States relations
          Telecommunication equipment
          Developed countries
          Computer peripherals
      keyword:
        international relations
        technology competition
        U.S.-China trade
        international relations
        technology competition
        U.S.-China trade
      ab: The tech war is having an effect on U.S.-China trade. For high-tech products like telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, and computer accessories, there has been a sharp drop in trade in both directions. This is not simply a drop in demand in the U.S. for these items because imports of them from other partners has soared. Vietnam's exports to the U.S. jumped in the sensitive categories, and overall Vietnamese exports to the U.S. more than doubled between 2018 and 2021. Despite these effects from the tech war, however, overall U.S.-China trade has held up surprisingly well. The year 2022 will almost certainly see a new historical high for trade in both directions. This resilience of trade, in the face of tariffs and tech sanctions, indicates that there is a strong economic foundation for the two-way relationship. For both China and the U.S., it is hard to replace the other one as a trade partner. It is possible for production of a few specific items to shift from China to Vietnam, but there is no way to replace China's huge manufacturing output. From China's point of view, the technologically advanced countries are all allies of the U.S., and it is not easy for China to turn to Europe for the technology it cannot get from America. Because U.S.-China trade is based on strong fundamentals, it will probably continue at a high level, in an uneasy equilibrium in which certain trade and investment is off-limits, while other business goes on.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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