Comparison of the Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) Estimation Methods of COVID-19 Using Simulation Data Based on Available Data from Iran, USA, UK, India, and Brazil.
Background: Accurate determination of the effective reproduction number (Rt) is a very important strategy in the epidemiology of contagious diseases, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study compares different methods of estimating the Rt of susceptible population to identify the mo...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Research in Health Sciences Vol. 22; no. 3; pp. 1 - 10 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, School of Public Health
Summer2022
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=160121887&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 160121887 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 22287795 903Q jtl: Journal of Research in Health Sciences issn: 22287795 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Summer2022 vid: 22 iid: 3 pid: 54266 pub: Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, School of Public Health artinfo: ui: 160121887 160121887 160121887 10.34172/jrhs.2022.94 160121887 ppf: 1 ppct: 9 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Comparison of the Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) Estimation Methods of COVID-19 Using Simulation Data Based on Available Data from Iran, USA, UK, India, and Brazil. aug: au: Karamoozian, Ali Bahrampour, Abbas affil: Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran sug: subj: COVID-19 Epidemiology Basic Reproduction Number Evaluation Simulations Human Iran United States United Kingdom India Brazil Maximum Likelihood Secondary Analysis Probability Descriptive Statistics Confidence Intervals ab: Background: Accurate determination of the effective reproduction number (Rt) is a very important strategy in the epidemiology of contagious diseases, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study compares different methods of estimating the Rt of susceptible population to identify the most accurate method for estimating Rt. Study Design: A secondary study. Methods: The value of Rt was estimated using attack rate (AR), exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood (ML), time-dependent (TD), and sequential Bayesian (SB) methods, for Iran, the United States, the United Kingdom, India, and Brazil from June to October 2021. In order to accurately compare these methods, a simulation study was designed using forty scenarios. Results: The lowest mean square error (MSE) was observed for TD and ML methods, with 15 and 12 cases, respectively. Therefore, considering the estimated values of Rt based on the TD method, it was found that Rt values in the United Kingdom (1.33; 95% CI: 1.14-1.52) and the United States (1.25; 95% CI: 1.12-1.38) substantially have been more than those in other countries, such as Iran (1.07; 95% CI: 0.95-1.19), India (0.99; 95% CI: 0.89-1.08), and Brazil (0.98; 95% CI: 0.84-1.14) from June to October 2021. Conclusion: The important result of this study is that TD and ML methods lead to a more accurate estimation of Rt of population than other methods. Therefore, in order to monitor and determine the epidemic situation and have a more accurate prediction of the incidence rate, as well as control COVID-19 and similar diseases, the use of these two methods is suggested to more accurately estimate Rt. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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