Prediction of depressive symptoms onset and long-term trajectories in home-based older adults using machine learning techniques.

Our aim was to explore the possibility of using machine learning (ML) in predicting the onset and trajectories of depressive symptom in home-based older adults over a 7-year period. Depressive symptom data (collected in the year 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018) of home-based older Chinese (n = 2650) recru...

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Publicado en:Aging & Mental Health Vol. 27; no. 1; pp. 8 - 18
Autores principales: Lin, Shaowu, Wu, Yafei, He, Lingxiao, Fang, Ya
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Taylor & Francis Ltd Jan2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: Jan2023
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      pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd
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        10.1080/13607863.2022.2031868
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        atl: Prediction of depressive symptoms onset and long-term trajectories in home-based older adults using machine learning techniques.
      aug:
        au:
          Lin, Shaowu
          Wu, Yafei
          He, Lingxiao
          Fang, Ya
        affil:
          The State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccine and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
          National Institute for Data Science in Health and Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
          Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment of Fujian Province, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
      su:
        China
        Geriatrics & psychology
        Memory
        Cognition
        Sleep
        Mental depression
        Health
        Information resources
        Sociodemographic factors
        Old age
        Structural equation modeling
        Decision trees
        Support vector machines
        Research methodology
        Machine learning
        Random forest algorithms
        Risk assessment
        Receiver operating characteristic curves
      sug:
        subj:
          Geriatrics & psychology
          Memory
          Cognition
          Sleep
          Mental depression
          Health
          Information resources
          Sociodemographic factors
          Old age
          China
          Structural equation modeling
          Decision trees
          Support vector machines
          Research methodology
          Machine learning
          Random forest algorithms
          Risk assessment
          Receiver operating characteristic curves
      keyword:
        depressive symptoms
        home-based elderly
        long-term trajectory
        prediction
        depressive symptoms
        home-based elderly
        long-term trajectory
        prediction
      ab: Our aim was to explore the possibility of using machine learning (ML) in predicting the onset and trajectories of depressive symptom in home-based older adults over a 7-year period. Depressive symptom data (collected in the year 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018) of home-based older Chinese (n = 2650) recruited in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were included in the current analysis. The latent class growth modeling (LCGM) and growth mixture modeling (GMM) were used to classify different trajectory classes. Based on the identified trajectory patterns, three ML classification algorithms (i.e. gradient boosting decision tree, support vector machine and random forest) were evaluated with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure and a metric of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Four trajectories were identified for the depressive symptoms: no symptoms (63.9%), depressive symptoms onset {incident increasing symptoms [new-onset increasing (16.8%)], chronic symptoms [slowly decreasing (12.5%), persistent high (6.8%)]}. Among the analyzed baseline variables, the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD-10) score, cognition, sleep time, self-reported memory were the top five important predictors across all trajectories. The mean AUCs of the three predictive models had a range from 0.661 to 0.892. ML techniques can be robust in predicting depressive symptom onset and trajectories over a 7-year period with easily accessible sociodemographic and health information. Supplemental data for this article is available online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13607863.2022.2031868
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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