Self-fulfilling Prophecy in Practical and Automated Prediction.
A self-fulfilling prophecy is, roughly, a prediction that brings about its own truth. Although true predictions are hard to fault, self-fulfilling prophecies are often regarded with suspicion. In this article, we vindicate this suspicion by explaining what self-fulfilling prophecies are and what is...
| Published in: | Ethical Theory & Moral Practice Vol. 26; no. 1; pp. 127 - 153 |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article |
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Springer Nature
Mar2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | View this record in EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=163099918&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 163099918 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 13862820 OEY jtl: Ethical Theory & Moral Practice issn: 13862820 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Mar2023 vid: 26 iid: 1 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 163099918 10.1007/s10677-022-10359-9 ppf: 127 ppct: 26 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 823KB tig: atl: Self-fulfilling Prophecy in Practical and Automated Prediction. aug: au: King, Owen C. Mertens, Mayli affil: School of Information and Library Science, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA Centre for Medical Science and Technology Studies, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark su: Self-fulfilling prophecy Forecasting Ethics Prediction (Psychology) Expectation (Psychology) sug: subj: Self-fulfilling prophecy Forecasting Ethics Prediction (Psychology) Expectation (Psychology) keyword: Accountability Feedback loop Predictive analytics Reflexive prediction ab: A self-fulfilling prophecy is, roughly, a prediction that brings about its own truth. Although true predictions are hard to fault, self-fulfilling prophecies are often regarded with suspicion. In this article, we vindicate this suspicion by explaining what self-fulfilling prophecies are and what is problematic about them, paying special attention to how their problems are exacerbated through automated prediction. Our descriptive account of self-fulfilling prophecies articulates the four elements that define them. Based on this account, we begin our critique by showing that typical self-fulfilling prophecies arise due to mistakes about the relationship between a prediction and its object. Such mistakes—along with other mistakes in predicting or in the larger practical endeavor—are easily overlooked when the predictions turn out true. Thus we note that self-fulfilling prophecies prompt no error signals; truth shrouds their mistakes from humans and machines alike. Consequently, self-fulfilling prophecies create several obstacles to accountability for the outcomes they produce. We conclude our critique by showing how failures of accountability, and the associated failures to make corrections, explain the connection between self-fulfilling prophecies and feedback loops. By analyzing the complex relationships between accuracy and other evaluatively significant features of predictions, this article sheds light both on the special case of self-fulfilling prophecies and on the ethics of prediction more generally. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Ethical Theory & Moral Practice is a copyright of Springer, 2023. All Rights Reserved. item: Ethical Theory & Moral Practice holder: Springer Nature dt: @attributes: year: 2023 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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