Time interval choices in forecasting stock market indices of CEE and SEE countries.

The main objective of this analysis is to investigate how varying the forecast horizon and the input window length for calculating technical indicators affects the predictive performance of different machine learning algorithms on forecasting the direction of change of chosen stock market indices. T...

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Publicado en:Post-Communist Economies Vol. 35; no. 4; pp. 403 - 414
Autor principal: Vlah Jerić, Silvija
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Taylor & Francis Ltd May2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: May2023
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      pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd
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        10.1080/14631377.2023.2188768
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        atl: Time interval choices in forecasting stock market indices of CEE and SEE countries.
      aug:
        au: Vlah Jerić, Silvija
        affil: Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
      su:
        Stock price indexes
        Stock exchanges
        Machine learning
        High performance computing
      sug:
        subj:
          Securities and Commodity Exchanges
          Stock price indexes
          Stock exchanges
          Machine learning
          High performance computing
      keyword:
        classification algorithms
        financial forecasting
        machine learning
        stock price prediction
        Technical trading
        classification algorithms
        financial forecasting
        machine learning
        stock price prediction
        Technical trading
      ab: The main objective of this analysis is to investigate how varying the forecast horizon and the input window length for calculating technical indicators affects the predictive performance of different machine learning algorithms on forecasting the direction of change of chosen stock market indices. Ten indices from CEE (Central and Eastern European) and SEE (Southern and Eastern European) countries are chosen for research in an attempt to investigate their behaviour in the light of the behaviour of bigger and more researched markets. In respect to similar research conducted on S&P 500 Index stocks, this analysis does not find the same pattern of highest system performance for each forecast horizon value when the input window length is approximately equal to the forecasting horizon. Instead, the forecasts seem to be better using shorter input window lengths for technical indicators in general. Also, on average, there is a notable deterioration in the performance with the increase of forecasting horizon. Furthermore, some algorithms perform very well for short horizons and then deteriorate substantially as the forecasting horizon increases, while others seem to have more consistent performance over different horizons.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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