Using input–output models to estimate sectoral effects of carbon tax policy: Applications of the NGFS scenarios.

The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has engaged in scenario analysis that estimates a $200/ton carbon tax would be required to transition to net zero carbon by 2050. Using a $200/ton carbon tax as a base, this paper uses input–output (IO) modeling to...

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Publicado en:American Journal of Economics & Sociology Vol. 82; no. 3; pp. 187 - 223
Autores principales: Kay, David, Jolley, G. Jason
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Wiley-Blackwell May2023
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        atl: Using input–output models to estimate sectoral effects of carbon tax policy: Applications of the NGFS scenarios.
      aug:
        au:
          Kay, David
          Jolley, G. Jason
        affil:
          Corporate Economics Group, Wells Fargo & Company, Charlotte North Carolina,, USA
          Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Service, Ohio University, Athens Ohio,, USA
      su:
        Fiscal policy
        Prices
        Carbon taxes
        Tax base
        Price increases
      sug:
        subj:
          Fiscal policy
          Prices
          Public Finance Activities
          Carbon taxes
          Tax base
          Price increases
      ab: The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has engaged in scenario analysis that estimates a $200/ton carbon tax would be required to transition to net zero carbon by 2050. Using a $200/ton carbon tax as a base, this paper uses input–output (IO) modeling to generate price and revenue effects of a carbon tax. Results from these models, which can only be interpreted as the short‐run, upper‐bound effects of the carbon tax policy, imply that in response to a $200/ton tax on CO2e emissions, carbon‐intensive industries, such as agriculture, extraction, transportation, utilities, and chemicals, may experience price increases in the range of 10‐30 percent. Other industries will also experience price increases, but to a lesser degree, due to increased input costs associated with the tax. In addition, modeling results also suggest that industries facing elastic pricing regimes may face similar‐sized declines in revenues as a consequence of the carbon tax. Rank‐ordered impact results from these models can be utilized by bank supervisors and firms to adequately plan for sectoral‐level transition risk within their lending and/or investment portfolios.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
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      src: R
    language: English
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