Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia's second wave.
Background: We investigated the public health and economy outcomes of different levels of social distancing to control a 'second wave' outbreak in Australia and identify implications for public health management of COVID-19. Methods: Individual-based and compartment models were used to simulate the...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Public Health: From Theory to Practice (2198-1833) Vol. 31; no. 6; pp. 917 - 933 |
|---|---|
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Jun2023
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=163725102&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 163725102 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 21981833 NENI jtl: Journal of Public Health: From Theory to Practice (2198-1833) issn: 21981833 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Jun2023 vid: 31 iid: 6 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 163725102 10.1007/s10389-021-01611-0 ppf: 917 ppct: 16 formats: tig: atl: Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia's second wave. aug: au: Grafton, R. Quentin Parslow, John Kompas, Tom Glass, Kathryn Banks, Emily affil: Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia Hobart, Australia Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, 3010, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia su: Australia Public health Uncertainty Cost benefit analysis Epidemics Disease progression COVID-19 Confidence intervals Statistical models Social distancing sug: subj: Public health Uncertainty Cost benefit analysis Epidemics Australia Health and Welfare Funds Disease progression COVID-19 Confidence intervals Statistical models Social distancing keyword: Compartment models Individual based models Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 Compartment models Individual based models Pandemic SARS-CoV-2 ab: Background: We investigated the public health and economy outcomes of different levels of social distancing to control a 'second wave' outbreak in Australia and identify implications for public health management of COVID-19. Methods: Individual-based and compartment models were used to simulate the effects of different social distancing and detection strategies on Australian COVID-19 infections and the economy from March to July 2020. These models were used to evaluate the effects of different social distancing levels and the early relaxation of suppression measures, in terms of public health and economy outcomes. Results: The models, fitted to observations up to July 2020, yielded projections consistent with subsequent cases and showed that better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration. Early relaxation of suppression results in worse public health outcomes and higher economy costs. Conclusions: Better public health outcomes (reduced COVID-19 fatalities) are positively associated with lower economy costs and higher levels of social distancing; achieving zero community transmission lowers both public health and economy costs compared to allowing community transmission to continue; and early relaxation of social distancing increases both public health and economy costs. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
|---|