Meta-uncertainty and the proof paradoxes.

Various real and imagined criminal law cases rest on "naked statistical evidence". That is, they rest more or less entirely on a probability for guilt/liability derived from a single statistical model. The intuition is that there is something missing in these cases, high as the probability for guilt...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Philosophical Studies Vol. 180; no. 7; pp. 1927 - 1951
Main Authors: Steele, Katie, Colyvan, Mark
Format: Article
Published: Springer Nature Jul2023
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
fields @attributes:
  recordID: 1
pdfLink:
plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=164372077&site=ehost-live
header:
  @attributes:
    shortDbName: hlh
    uiTerm: 164372077
    longDbName: Humanities International Complete
    uiTag: AN
  controlInfo:
    bkinfo:
    jinfo:
      jid:
        00318116
        4L8
      jtl: Philosophical Studies
      issn: 00318116
      maglogo: N
    pubinfo:
      dt: Jul2023
      vid: 180
      iid: 7
      pid: 237
      pub: Springer Nature
    artinfo:
      ui:
        164372077
        10.1007/s11098-023-01951-5
      ppf: 1927
      ppct: 24
      formats:
        fmt:
          – @attributes:
              type: T
          – @attributes:
              type: P
              size: 749KB
      tig:
        atl: Meta-uncertainty and the proof paradoxes.
      aug:
        au:
          Steele, Katie
          Colyvan, Mark
        affil:
          School of Philosophy, Australian National University, 2600, Canberra, ACT, Australia
          Department of Philosophy, University of Sydney, A14 Main, Quadrangle, 2006, Sydney, NSW, Australia
      su:
        Criminal law
        Statistical models
        Statistical evidence (Law)
        Legal evidence
        Probabilism
      sug:
        subj:
          Criminal law
          Statistical models
          Statistical evidence (Law)
          Legal evidence
          Probabilism
      keyword:
        Legal probabilism
        Meta-uncertainty
        Proof paradoxes
        Statistical evidence
      ab: Various real and imagined criminal law cases rest on "naked statistical evidence". That is, they rest more or less entirely on a probability for guilt/liability derived from a single statistical model. The intuition is that there is something missing in these cases, high as the probability for guilt/liability may be, such that the relevant standard for legal proof is not met. Here we contribute to the considerable debate about how this intuition is best explained and what it teaches us about evidential reasoning in the legal setting. We part ways with the recent scholarship, however. Unlike most others, our diagnosis is not that there is an important qualitative property that some evidence or bodies of evidence have, and that naked statistical evidence, most strikingly, lacks. Rather, we see cases resting on naked statistical evidence as lying at the extreme of a continuum of cases that are vulnerable to challenge due to "meta-uncertainty" about the underlying model.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
    refInfo:
    copyright:
      @attributes:
        flag: Y
      custom: Philosophical Studies is a copyright of Springer, 2023. All Rights Reserved.
      item: Philosophical Studies
      holder: Springer Nature
      dt:
        @attributes:
          year: 2023
    holdings:
      @attributes:
        islocal: N