Spatiotemporal Transmission Model to Simulate an Interregional Epidemic Spreading.
Infectious disease spread is a spatiotemporal process with significant regional differences that can be affected by multiple factors, such as human mobility and manner of contact. From a geographical perspective, the simulation and analysis of an epidemic can promote an understanding of the contagio...
| Publicado en: | Annals of the American Association of Geographers Vol. 113; no. 9; pp. 2084 - 2108 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Taylor & Francis Ltd
2023
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=173272039&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 173272039 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 24694452 JRMH jtl: Annals of the American Association of Geographers issn: 24694452 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: 2023 vid: 113 iid: 9 pid: 377 pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd artinfo: ui: 173272039 10.1080/24694452.2023.2216296 ppf: 2084 ppct: 24 formats: tig: atl: Spatiotemporal Transmission Model to Simulate an Interregional Epidemic Spreading. aug: au: Li, Zitong Zhang, Haiping Chen, Ding Chen, Canyu Chen, Renyu Shen, Nuozhou Huang, Yi Xiong, Liyang Tang, Guoan affil: Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Nanjing Normal University, Ministry of Education, China, State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province), China, and Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, China School of Geographic and Biologic Information, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, China su: Infectious disease transmission Epidemics Residential mobility Psychological feedback Spatiotemporal processes Simulation methods & models sug: subj: Infectious disease transmission Epidemics Residential mobility Psychological feedback Spatiotemporal processes Simulation methods & models keyword: análisis espaciotemporal geografía médica heterogeneidades geoespaciales modelización del contagio 传播模拟。 健康地理 区域间人口互动 地理空间异质性 时空分析 análisis espaciotemporal geografía médica heterogeneidades geoespaciales modelización del contagio 传播模拟。 健康地理 区域间人口互动 地理空间异质性 时空分析 ab: Infectious disease spread is a spatiotemporal process with significant regional differences that can be affected by multiple factors, such as human mobility and manner of contact. From a geographical perspective, the simulation and analysis of an epidemic can promote an understanding of the contagion mechanism and lead to an accurate prediction of its future trends. The existing methods fail to consider the mutual feedback mechanism of heterogeneities between the interregional population interaction and the regional transmission conditions (e.g., contact probability and the effective reproduction number). This disadvantage oversimplifies the transmission process and reduces the accuracy of the simulation results. To fill this gap, a general model considering the spatiotemporal characteristics is proposed, which includes compartment modeling of population categories, flow interaction modeling of population movements, and spatial spread modeling of an infectious disease. Furthermore, the correctness of a theoretical hypothesis for modeling and prediction accuracy of this model was tested with a synthetic data set and a real-world COVID-19 data set in China, respectively. The theoretical contribution of this article was to verify that the interplay of multiple types of geospatial heterogeneities dramatically influences the spatial spread of infectious disease. This model provides an effective method for solving infectious disease simulation problems involving dynamic, complex spatiotemporal processes of geographical elements, such as optimization of lockdown strategies, analyses of the medical resource carrying capacity, and risk assessment of herd immunity from the perspective of geography. Key Words: geospatial heterogeneities, health geography, interregional population interaction, spatiotemporal analysis, transmission modeling. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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