Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension.
It has been shown that Bayesian reasoning is affected by the believability of the data, but it is unknown which conditions could potentiate or reduce such belief effect. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the belief effect would mainly be observed in conditions fostering a gist comprehension of the...
| Publicado en: | Memory & Cognition Vol. 51; no. 8; pp. 1819 - 1836 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Springer Nature
Nov2023
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=173558626&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 173558626 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 0090502X MEG jtl: Memory & Cognition issn: 0090502X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Nov2023 vid: 51 iid: 8 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 173558626 10.3758/s13421-023-01435-1 ppf: 1819 ppct: 17 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 1.5MB tig: atl: Previous beliefs affect Bayesian reasoning in conditions fostering gist comprehension. aug: au: Tubau, Elisabet Colomé, Àngels Rodríguez-Ferreiro, Javier affil: https://ror.org/021018s57 Department of Cognition, Development and Educational Psychology Institute of Neurosciences University of Barcelona, O8035, Pg Vall d'Hebron, 171, Barcelona, Spain su: Culture Memory Cognition Task performance Mathematics Research funding Prediction models Probability theory sug: subj: Culture Memory Cognition Task performance Mathematics Research funding Prediction models Probability theory keyword: Bayesian reasoning Belief effect Gist comprehension Nonnumerical probability estimates Presentation format Bayesian reasoning Belief effect Gist comprehension Nonnumerical probability estimates Presentation format ab: It has been shown that Bayesian reasoning is affected by the believability of the data, but it is unknown which conditions could potentiate or reduce such belief effect. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the belief effect would mainly be observed in conditions fostering a gist comprehension of the data. Accordingly, we expected to observe a significant belief effect in iconic rather than in textual presentations and, in general, when nonnumerical estimates were requested. The results of three studies showed more accurate Bayesian estimates, either expressed numerically or nonnumerically, for icons than for text descriptions of natural frequencies. Moreover, in line with our expectations, nonnumerical estimates were, in general, more accurate for believable rather than for unbelievable scenarios. In contrast, the belief effect on the accuracy of the numerical estimates depended on the format and on the complexity of the calculation. The present findings also showed that single-event posterior probability estimates based on described frequencies were more accurate when expressed nonnumerically rather than numerically, opening new avenues for the development of interventions to improve Bayesian reasoning. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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