An event algebra for causal counterfactuals.

"If the tower is any taller than 320 ms, it may collapse," Eiffel thinks out loud. Although understanding this counterfactual poses no trouble, the most successful interventionist semantics struggle to model it because the antecedent can come about in infinitely many ways. My aim is to provide a sem...

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Published in:Philosophical Studies Vol. 180; no. 12; pp. 3533 - 3566
Main Author: Wysocki, Tomasz
Format: Article
Published: Springer Nature Dec2023
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: Dec2023
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      pub: Springer Nature
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        10.1007/s11098-023-02015-4
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        atl: An event algebra for causal counterfactuals.
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        au: Wysocki, Tomasz
        affil: https://ror.org/01y9bpm73 Georg-Elias-Müller-Institut für Psychologie, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
      su:
        Counterfactuals (Logic)
        Algebra
        Semantics
        Causation (Philosophy)
        Reasoning
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          Counterfactuals (Logic)
          Algebra
          Semantics
          Causation (Philosophy)
          Reasoning
      keyword:
        Causal models
        Causation
        Counterfactuals
        Disjunctive events
        Event algebra
        Interventionist semantics
        Might-counterfactuals
        Semaphore interventions
        Strong centering
        Underdeterminism
      ab: "If the tower is any taller than 320 ms, it may collapse," Eiffel thinks out loud. Although understanding this counterfactual poses no trouble, the most successful interventionist semantics struggle to model it because the antecedent can come about in infinitely many ways. My aim is to provide a semantics that will make modeling such counterfactuals easy for philosophers, computer scientists, and cognitive scientists who work on causation and causal reasoning. I first propose three desiderata that will guide my theory: it should be general, yet conservative, yet useful. Next, I develop a formalization of events in the form of an algebra. I identify an event with all the ways in which it can be brought about and provide rules for determining the referent of an arbitrary event description. I apply this algebra to counterfactuals expressed using underdeterministic causal models-models that encode non-probabilistic causal indeterminacies. Specifically, I develop semaphore interventions, which represent how the target system may be modified from without in a coordinated fashion. This, in turn, allows me to bring about any event within a single model. Finally, I explain the advantages of this semantics over other interventionist competitors.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
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      src: R
    language: English
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