Inference on Winners*.
Policy makers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. Sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner's curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. This winner's curse biases...
| Publicado en: | Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 139; no. 1; pp. 305 - 359 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Oxford University Press / USA
Feb2024
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=174684292&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 174684292 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00335533 QJE jtl: Quarterly Journal of Economics issn: 00335533 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Feb2024 vid: 139 iid: 1 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 174684292 10.1093/qje/qjad043 ppf: 305 ppct: 54 formats: tig: atl: Inference on Winners*. aug: au: Andrews, Isaiah Kitagawa, Toru McCloskey, Adam affil: Massachusetts Institute of Technology , United States Brown University , United States University of Colorado at Boulder , United States su: Neighborhoods Sampling errors Economic opportunities Confidence intervals Research personnel sug: subj: Neighborhoods Sampling errors Economic opportunities Confidence intervals Research personnel ab: Policy makers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. Sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner's curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. This winner's curse biases our estimates for selected options upward and can invalidate conventional confidence intervals. This article develops estimators and confidence intervals that eliminate this winner's curse. We illustrate our results by studying selection of job-training programs based on estimated earnings effects and selection of neighborhoods based on estimated economic opportunity. We find that our winner's curse corrections can make an economically significant difference to conclusions but still allow informative inference. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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