Bayesian defeat of certainties.
When P(E) > 0, conditional probabilities P (H | E) are given by the ratio formula. An agent engages in ratio conditionalization when she updates her credences using conditional probabilities dictated by the ratio formula. Ratio conditionalization cannot eradicate certainties, including certainties g...
| Publicado en: | Synthese Vol. 203; no. 2; pp. 1 - 39 |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Springer Nature
Feb2024
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=175171299&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 175171299 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00397857 4LI jtl: Synthese issn: 00397857 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Feb2024 vid: 203 iid: 2 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 175171299 10.1007/s11229-023-04383-0 ppf: 1 ppct: 38 formats: fmt: @attributes: type: P size: 994KB tig: atl: Bayesian defeat of certainties. aug: au: Rescorla, Michael affil: Department of Philosophy, University of California, Los Angeles, USA sug: keyword: Bayesian decision theory Conditional probability Conditionalization Epistemic defeat Regular conditional distribution ab: When P(E) > 0, conditional probabilities P (H | E) are given by the ratio formula. An agent engages in ratio conditionalization when she updates her credences using conditional probabilities dictated by the ratio formula. Ratio conditionalization cannot eradicate certainties, including certainties gained through prior exercises of ratio conditionalization. An agent who updates her credences only through ratio conditionalization risks permanent certainty in propositions against which she has overwhelming evidence. To avoid this undesirable consequence, I argue that we should supplement ratio conditionalization with Kolmogorov conditionalization, a strategy for updating credences based on propositions E such that P(E) = 0. Kolmogorov conditionalization can eradicate certainties, including certainties gained through prior exercises of conditionalization. Adducing general theorems and detailed examples, I show that Kolmogorov conditionalization helps us model epistemic defeat across a wide range of circumstances. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: Synthese is a copyright of Springer, 2024. All Rights Reserved. item: Synthese holder: Springer Nature dt: @attributes: year: 2024 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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