The shape of business cycles: A cross‐country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory.
We test the international applicability of Friedman's plucking theory of the business cycle in 18 advanced economies between 1970 and 2019. We find that in countries where labour markets are more flexible (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States), unemployment rates ty...
| Publicado en: | Kyklos Vol. 77; no. 2; pp. 351 - 371 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
May2024
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=176353686&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 176353686 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00235962 KYK jtl: Kyklos issn: 00235962 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: May2024 vid: 77 iid: 2 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 176353686 10.1111/kykl.12370 ppf: 351 ppct: 20 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: C – @attributes: type: P size: 1.2MB tig: atl: The shape of business cycles: A cross‐country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory. aug: au: Kohlscheen, Emanuel Moessner, Richhild Rees, Daniel M. affil: Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland su: Business cycles Labor market Recessions Unemployment statistics Real property sales & prices sug: subj: Business cycles Labor market Recessions Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers Lessors of Other Real Estate Property Unemployment statistics Real property sales & prices ab: We test the international applicability of Friedman's plucking theory of the business cycle in 18 advanced economies between 1970 and 2019. We find that in countries where labour markets are more flexible (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States), unemployment rates typically return to pre‐recession levels, in line with Friedman's theory. Elsewhere, unemployment rate recoveries are less complete. Output recoveries differ less across countries, but more across episodes: on average, half of the decline in GDP during a recession persists. In contrast, the extent of labour market tightening or output growth during a boom generally does not provide any information about the intensity of the subsequent recession. In terms of sectors, declines in manufacturing are typically fully reversed. In contrast, construction‐driven recessions, which are often associated with bursting property price bubbles, tend to be persistent. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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