Prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland 2015–2020: A multi‐parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) study.
Background and aims: Drug‐related deaths in Scotland more than doubled between 2011 and 2020. To inform policymakers and understand drivers of this increase, we estimated the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15–64 from 2014/15 to 2019/20. Design: We fitted a Bayesian multi‐parameter esti...
| Publicado en: | Addiction Vol. 119; pp. 1410 - 1421 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Formato: | research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Wiley-Blackwell
Aug2024 Supplement 1
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=178210483&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 178210483 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 09652140 AIO jtl: Addiction issn: 09652140 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Aug2024 Supplement 1 vid: 119 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell place: Malden, Massachusetts artinfo: ui: 178210483 176625554 178210483 178210483 10.1111/add.16500 178210483 ppf: 1410 ppct: 11 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: C – @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland 2015–2020: A multi‐parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) study. aug: au: Markoulidakis, Andreas Hickman, Matthew McAuley, Andrew Barnsdale, Lee R. Welton, Nicky J. Glancy, Megan Shivaji, Tara Collins, Craig Lang, Jaroslaw de Wit, Femke Hunt, Gordon Wilkinson, Levin Fraser, Rosalyn Yeung, Alan Horsburgh, Kirsten Priyadarshi, Saket Hutchinson, Sharon J. Jones, Hayley E. affil: Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK sug: subj: Substance Use Disorders Epidemiology Substance Use Disorders Drug Therapy Analgesics, Opioid Therapeutic Use Human Funding Source Scotland Male Female Adolescence Adult Middle Age Probability Hospitalization Prevalence Stakeholder Participation Adverse Drug Event Glasgow Coma Scale Healthy Aging Descriptive Statistics Confidence Intervals Adolescent: 13-18 years Adult: 19-44 years Middle Aged: 45-64 years Male Female ab: Background and aims: Drug‐related deaths in Scotland more than doubled between 2011 and 2020. To inform policymakers and understand drivers of this increase, we estimated the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15–64 from 2014/15 to 2019/20. Design: We fitted a Bayesian multi‐parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) model, using adverse event rates to estimate prevalence of opioid dependence jointly from Opioid Agonist Therapy (OAT), opioid‐related mortality and hospital admissions data. Estimates are stratified by age group, sex and year. Setting: Scotland, 2014/15 to 2019/20. Participants: People with opioid dependence and potential to benefit from OAT, whether ever treated or not. Using data from the Scottish Public Health Drug Linkage Programme, we identified a baseline cohort of individuals who had received OAT within the last 5 years, and all opioid‐related deaths and hospital admissions (whether among or outside of this cohort). Measurements Rates of each adverse event type and (unobserved) prevalence were jointly modelled. Findings The estimated number and prevalence of people with opioid dependence in Scotland in 2019/20 was 47 100 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 45 700 to 48 600) and 1.32% (95% CrI 1.28% to 1.37%). Of these, 61% received OAT during 2019/20. Prevalence in Greater Glasgow and Clyde was estimated as 1.77% (95% CrI 1.69% to 1.85%). There was weak evidence that overall prevalence fell slightly from 2014/15 (change −0.07%, 95% CrI ‐0.14% to 0.00%). The population of people with opioid dependence is ageing, with the estimated number of people aged 15–34 reducing by 5100 (95% CrI 3800 to 6400) and number aged 50–64 increasing by 2800 (95% CrI 2100 to 3500) between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Conclusions: The prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland remained high but was relatively stable, with only weak evidence of a small reduction, between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Increased numbers of opioid‐related deaths can be attributed to increased risk among people with opioid dependence, rather than increasing prevalence. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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