Effect of the U.S.–China Trade War on Stock Markets: A Financial Contagion Perspective.

In this article, to model risk contagion between the U.S. and China stock markets based on high-frequency financial data, we develop a novel continuous-time jump-diffusion process. For example, we consider three channels for volatility contagion—such as integrated volatility, positive jump variation...

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Publicado en:Journal of Financial Econometrics Vol. 22; no. 4; pp. 954 - 1006
Autores principales: Oh, Minseog, Kim, Donggyu
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Fall2024
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        atl: Effect of the U.S.–China Trade War on Stock Markets: A Financial Contagion Perspective.
      aug:
        au:
          Oh, Minseog
          Kim, Donggyu
        affil: College of Business, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) , Seoul 02455, South Korea
      su:
        China-United States relations
        International trade disputes
        Stocks (Finance)
        Jump processes
        Financial markets
      sug:
        subj:
          Investment Banking and Securities Dealing
          Securities and Commodity Exchanges
          China-United States relations
          International trade disputes
          Stocks (Finance)
          Jump processes
          Financial markets
      keyword:
        C13
        C32
        C55
        C58
        high-frequency financial data
        jump diffusion process
        realized volatility
        structural break
        C13
        C32
        C55
        C58
        high-frequency financial data
        jump diffusion process
        realized volatility
        structural break
      ab: In this article, to model risk contagion between the U.S. and China stock markets based on high-frequency financial data, we develop a novel continuous-time jump-diffusion process. For example, we consider three channels for volatility contagion—such as integrated volatility, positive jump variation, and negative jump variation—and each stock market is able to affect the other stock market as an overnight risk factor. We develop a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for model parameters and establish its asymptotic properties. Furthermore, to identify contagion channels and test the existence of a structural break with a known structural break date, we propose hypothesis test procedures. Using the proposed diffusion model with high-frequency financial data, we investigate the effect of the U.S.–China trade war on stock markets from a financial contagion perspective. From the empirical study, we find evidence of financial contagion from the United States to China and evidence that the risk contagion channel has changed from integrated volatility to negative jump variation.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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