Predictive Optimization of Patient No-Show Management in Primary Healthcare Using Machine Learning.

The "no-show" problem in healthcare refers to the prevalent phenomenon where patients schedule appointments with healthcare providers but fail to attend them without prior cancellation or rescheduling. In addressing this issue, our study delves into a multivariate analysis over a five-year period in...

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Published in:Journal of Medical Systems Vol. 49; no. 1; pp. 1 - 27
Main Authors: Leiva-Araos, Andrés, Contreras, Cristián, Kaushal, Hemani, Prodanoff, Zornitza
Format: equations & formulas research tables/charts Journal Article
Published: Springer Nature 1/14/2025
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: 1/14/2025
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      pub: Springer Nature
      place: New York, New York
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        10.1007/s10916-025-02143-w
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        atl: Predictive Optimization of Patient No-Show Management in Primary Healthcare Using Machine Learning.
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          Leiva-Araos, Andrés
          Contreras, Cristián
          Kaushal, Hemani
          Prodanoff, Zornitza
        affil: https://ror.org/01j903a45 Department of Computing, University of North Florida, 1 UNF Dr., 32246, Jacksonville, FL, USA
      sug:
        subj:
          Primary Health Care
          Appointments and Schedules
          Patient Compliance Evaluation
          Appointment and Scheduling Information Systems
          Machine Learning
          Prediction Models Evaluation
          Human
          Multivariate Analysis
          Conceptual Framework
          Organizational Efficiency
          ROC Curve
          Sensitivity and Specificity
          Educational Status
          Marital Status
          Health Literacy
          Time
          Age Factors
          Pearson's Correlation Coefficient
          Chi Square Test
          Logistic Regression
          Kruskal-Wallis Test
          Analysis of Variance
      ab: The "no-show" problem in healthcare refers to the prevalent phenomenon where patients schedule appointments with healthcare providers but fail to attend them without prior cancellation or rescheduling. In addressing this issue, our study delves into a multivariate analysis over a five-year period involving 21,969 patients. Our study introduces a predictive model framework that offers a holistic approach to managing the no-show problem in healthcare, incorporating elements into the objective function that address not only the accurate prediction of no-shows but also the management of service capacity, overbooking, and idle resource allocation resulting from mispredictions. Our approach simplifies preprocessing and eliminates the need for expert judgment in variable selection, thereby enhancing the model's usability in routine healthcare operations. Our research revealed that key predictors of no-shows are consistent across various studies. We employed semi-automatic feature selection techniques, achieving results comparable to state-of-the-art approaches but with significantly reduced complexity in their selection. This method not only streamlines the feature selection process but also enhances the overall efficiency and scalability of our predictive models, making them more adaptable to diverse healthcare settings. This comprehensive strategy enables healthcare providers to optimize resource allocation and improve service delivery, making our findings relevant for healthcare systems globally facing similar challenges. Future work aims to expand the analysis by incorporating additional third-party data sources, such as weather and commuting activities, to explore the broader impacts of external factors on patient no-show behavior. To the best of our knowledge, this innovative approach is expected to provide deeper insights and further enhance the predictability and effectiveness of no-show mitigation strategies in healthcare systems.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype:
        equations & formulas
        research
        tables/charts
        Journal Article
      ougenre: Article
    language: English
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