Have Autocrats Governed for the Long Term?
The short answer is: probably not. We infer the priorities of national governments from observed outcomes, constructing a statistical proxy for long‐term benevolence. Using data between 1960 and 2019 for more than 100 countries, we show that, on average, democracies score more highly on our measure....
| Published in: | Kyklos Vol. 78; no. 2; pp. 440 - 466 |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Article |
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Wiley-Blackwell
May2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | View this record in EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=184274576&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 184274576 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00235962 KYK jtl: Kyklos issn: 00235962 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: May2025 vid: 78 iid: 2 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 184274576 10.1111/kykl.12425 ppf: 440 ppct: 26 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: C – @attributes: type: P size: 1.8MB tig: atl: Have Autocrats Governed for the Long Term? aug: au: Millemaci, Emanuele Monteforte, Fabio Temple, Jonathan R. W. affil: Department of Economics, University of Messina, Messina, Italy Independent Economist, Nottingham, UK su: Federal government Democracy National interest Benevolence Gambling sug: subj: Federal government Democracy Other Gambling Industries National interest Benevolence Gambling keyword: autocracy democracy long‐term benevolence autocracy democracy long‐term benevolence ab: The short answer is: probably not. We infer the priorities of national governments from observed outcomes, constructing a statistical proxy for long‐term benevolence. Using data between 1960 and 2019 for more than 100 countries, we show that, on average, democracies score more highly on our measure. We then investigate whether variation in long‐term benevolence can explain the 'autocratic gamble'—the well‐known tendency for growth rates to vary more widely across autocracies than across democracies. We show that the distribution of long‐term benevolence under democracy first‐order stochastically dominates its distribution under autocracy. Put differently, although there is an autocratic gamble in growth rates, there is no autocratic gamble in wider development outcomes. The rapid growth seen in some autocracies probably originates in regime self‐interest rather than unusually benevolent leadership. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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