Prediction of traumatic hemorrhagic shock using a Multi-scale exogenous variable model (MS-TimeXer-MoE).
Objective: To predict the likelihood of hemorrhagic shock in trauma patients using a multi-scale exogenous variable model, MS-TimeXer-MoE. Methods: This study is the first to use the TimeXer method incorporating exogenous variables to establish a predictive model for traumatic hemorrhagic shock, ach...
| Published in: | European Journal of Trauma & Emergency Surgery Vol. 51; no. 1; pp. 1 - 13 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Published: |
Springer Nature
6/5/2025
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| Online Access: | View this record in EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=185724795&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 185724795 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 18639933 3C05 jtl: European Journal of Trauma & Emergency Surgery issn: 18639933 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: 6/5/2025 vid: 51 iid: 1 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature place: New York, New York artinfo: ui: 185724795 185724795 185724795 10.1007/s00068-025-02878-8 185724795 ppf: 1 ppct: 12 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Prediction of traumatic hemorrhagic shock using a Multi-scale exogenous variable model (MS-TimeXer-MoE). aug: au: Wang, Wenxin Chen, Bing Wang, Qiuyi Rong, Jian affil: https://ror.org/03rc99w60 The Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, 300211, Tianjin, China sug: subj: Emergency Patients Shock, Traumatic Risk Factors Shock, Hemorrhagic Risk Factors Risk Assessment Prediction Models Evaluation Human Male Female Vital Signs Trauma Etiology Sex Factors Age Factors Sensitivity and Specificity Validity ROC Curve Regression Male Female ab: Objective: To predict the likelihood of hemorrhagic shock in trauma patients using a multi-scale exogenous variable model, MS-TimeXer-MoE. Methods: This study is the first to use the TimeXer method incorporating exogenous variables to establish a predictive model for traumatic hemorrhagic shock, achieving notable prediction results. Data from trauma patients were extracted from the MIMIC IV database according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. After data processing, the most relevant indicators were selected, including endogenous variables (e.g., vital signs, laboratory indicators) and exogenous variables (e.g., cause of trauma, gender, age, injury site). By integrating exogenous variables and multi-scale feature learning, and innovatively combining the multi-expert mechanism with the TimeXer method, a multi-expert mixed model, MS-TimeXer-MoE, was developed to predict hemorrhagic shock occurrence with higher accuracy and specificity. A total of 4,870 patients were included, divided into an experimental group of 2,432 cases and a control group of 2,438 cases based on the occurrence of hemorrhagic shock post-admission. The dataset was split into training, validation, and testing sets in a 60%:20%:20% ratio Results: The AUC value of the MS-TimeXer-MoE model in predicting hemorrhagic shock in trauma patients was 0.8995, with a recall rate of 0.8607, demonstrating high efficiency in shock identification, indicating that the model can distinguish positive and negative samples with high accuracy and recall rate. In regression tasks, the MS-TimeXer-MoE model's mean absolute error (MAE) was 3.4397, mean squared error (MSE) was 8.2735, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 5.9933%, and the coefficient of determination (R2) reached 87.3436%, showing good fitting and accuracy in time-series data prediction. In the five-fold cross-validation experiment, the variances of MAE and MSE were 0.031 and 0.174, respectively, further reflecting the model's low error fluctuation across different folds, ensuring accurate prediction of shock occurrence time. Conclusion: Compared to existing mainstream modeling methods for predicting shock occurrence, the MS-TimeXer-MoE model can more accurately predict the occurrence of hemorrhagic shock in trauma patients. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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