An Analysis of Polling Performance in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of the 2024 US presidential election polls. It is intended to consider the magnitude, directionality, and significance of polling errors using publicly available data and transparent statistical tools. It is demonstrated that presidential elect...
| Publicado en: | Presidential Studies Quarterly Vol. 55; no. 2; pp. 127 - 136 |
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| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Wiley-Blackwell
Jun2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=185726273&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 185726273 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 03604918 PRQ jtl: Presidential Studies Quarterly issn: 03604918 maglogo: Y pubinfo: dt: Jun2025 vid: 55 iid: 2 pid: 480 pub: Wiley-Blackwell artinfo: ui: 185726273 10.1111/psq.70002 ppf: 127 ppct: 9 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 236KB tig: atl: An Analysis of Polling Performance in the 2024 US Presidential Election. aug: au: Baltas, George Giakoumaki, Christina affil: Athens University of Economics & Business, Athens Attica,, Greece The American College of Greece, Aghia Paraskevi Attica,, Greece su: Public opinion polls Presidential elections Statistical significance Swing states (United States politics) Election forecasting sug: subj: Public opinion polls Presidential elections Marketing Research and Public Opinion Polling Statistical significance Swing states (United States politics) Election forecasting keyword: 2024 presidential election polling performance polls 2024 presidential election polling performance polls ab: The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of the 2024 US presidential election polls. It is intended to consider the magnitude, directionality, and significance of polling errors using publicly available data and transparent statistical tools. It is demonstrated that presidential election polling accuracy remains compromised by systematic biases. Our aggregate analysis of 100 national and battleground state polls reveals that Republican vote shares have been widely underestimated. A concerning finding is the statistically significant directional bias that resides in several polling contexts. Interestingly, the primary source of these biases resides in the underestimation of Republican vote, rather than the overestimation of Democratic support. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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