The accuracy of early weight gain in predicting treatment outcome in a large outpatient sample of patients with anorexia nervosa.

Previously, we evaluated early weight gain as a predictor of weight restoration for patients with anorexia nervosa using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Models had low performance, and high rates of misclassification. Regression models including percent target weight at admission i...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Eating Disorders pp. 1 - 15
Main Authors: Cai, Kelly, Perry, Taylor R., Steinberg, Dori M., Bohon, Cara, Menzel, Jessie E., Baker, Jessica H., Freestone, Dave
Format: Journal Article
Published: Taylor & Francis Ltd Jun2025
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
fields @attributes:
  recordID: 1
pdfLink:
plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=186126797&site=ehost-live
header:
  @attributes:
    shortDbName: ccm
    uiTerm: 186126797
    longDbName: CINAHL Complete
    uiTag: AN
  controlInfo:
    bkinfo:
    dissinfo:
    jinfo:
      jid:
        10640266
        C9I
      jtl: Eating Disorders
      issn: 10640266
      maglogo: N
    pubinfo:
      dt: Jun2025
      pid: 377
      pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd
      place: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
    artinfo:
      ui:
        186126797
        10.1080/10640266.2025.2519909
        186126797
      ppf: 1
      ppct: 14
      formats:
        fmt:
          @attributes:
            type: P
      tig:
        atl: The accuracy of early weight gain in predicting treatment outcome in a large outpatient sample of patients with anorexia nervosa.
      aug:
        au:
          Cai, Kelly
          Perry, Taylor R.
          Steinberg, Dori M.
          Bohon, Cara
          Menzel, Jessie E.
          Baker, Jessica H.
          Freestone, Dave
        affil: Equip Health, Inc
      sug:
      ab: Previously, we evaluated early weight gain as a predictor of weight restoration for patients with anorexia nervosa using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Models had low performance, and high rates of misclassification. Regression models including percent target weight at admission in addition to early weight gain performed better. This study evaluated the performance of early weight gain as a predictor of remission for patients with AN. We also explore the limitations of ROC analysis and show that the analogous logistic regression models outperform their ROC counterparts. Participants (<italic>N</italic> = 233) were patients with AN who received virtual outpatient FBT. ROC analyses used early weight gain to predict remission in week 20. Weight gain at week 8 performed best (AUC = 0.65 [0.58–0.72]). The optimal cutpoint was 8.9 pounds; 36% of the patients were misclassified. A regression model, which included percent target weight at admission in addition to early weight gain as a predictor variable, outperformed the ROC and returned the probability that a patient will remit. These data suggest that using early weight gain alone to set cutpoints misclassifies many patients with AN. Accounting for starting weight at admission improves model predictions.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Journal Article
      ougenre: Article
    language: English
    refInfo:
    holdings:
      @attributes:
        islocal: N