Estimation of factorial expressions and its improvement through calibration: A replication and extension of Tversky and Kahneman (1973).
Fifty years ago, Tversky and Kahneman (Cognitive Psychology, 5[2], 207–232, 1973) reported that people's speeded estimations of 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 were notably higher than their estimations for the equivalent expression in the opposite order, 1 × 2 × 3 × 4 × 5 × 6 × 7 × 8 (Median = 2,250...
| Publicado en: | Memory & Cognition Vol. 53; no. 5; pp. 1449 - 1466 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Jul2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=186988124&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 186988124 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 0090502X MEG jtl: Memory & Cognition issn: 0090502X maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Jul2025 vid: 53 iid: 5 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature artinfo: ui: 186988124 10.3758/s13421-024-01662-0 ppf: 1449 ppct: 17 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 1.1MB tig: atl: Estimation of factorial expressions and its improvement through calibration: A replication and extension of Tversky and Kahneman (1973). aug: au: Bye, Jeffrey Kramer Marupudi, Vijay Koenen, Reba Park, Jimin Varma, Sashank affil: https://ror.org/04pyvbw03 Department of Psychology, California State University, Dominguez Hills, 90747, Carson, CA, USA https://ror.org/01zkghx44 School of Interactive Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA https://ror.org/01zkghx44 School of Psychology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA https://ror.org/017zqws13 Department of Educational Psychology, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA su: Intellect Sensory perception Decision making Judgment (Psychology) Cognition Mathematics Research funding Replication (Experimental design) Descriptive statistics Calibration Data analysis software Sensitivity & specificity (Statistics) sug: subj: Intellect Sensory perception Decision making Judgment (Psychology) Cognition Mathematics Research funding Replication (Experimental design) Descriptive statistics Calibration Data analysis software Sensitivity & specificity (Statistics) keyword: Anchoring heuristic Estimation Judgment and decision-making Mathematical cognition Psychology and Cognitive Sciences Psychology Replication Anchoring heuristic Estimation Judgment and decision-making Mathematical cognition Psychology and Cognitive Sciences Psychology Replication ab: Fifty years ago, Tversky and Kahneman (Cognitive Psychology, 5[2], 207–232, 1973) reported that people's speeded estimations of 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 were notably higher than their estimations for the equivalent expression in the opposite order, 1 × 2 × 3 × 4 × 5 × 6 × 7 × 8 (Median = 2,250 vs. 512, respectively). On top of this order effect, both groups grossly underestimated the correct value (40,320). The differential effect of the two orders on estimation has become famous as an early demonstration of the anchoring effect, where people's judgments under uncertainty are unduly influenced by an initial reference point (or "anchor"). Despite this fame, to the best of our knowledge, this effect has never been replicated. In a sample of 253 U.S. adults, the current study provides the first replication of this foundational example of anchoring. It extends this effect for the first time to a within-participants design, revealing its relative robustness even among participants who see the descending order first. Drawing on procedures from the mathematical cognition literature, it shows how the anchoring effect can be mitigated: calibrating to the correct value of 6! reduces this effect, and calibrating to 10! eliminates it altogether. An individual differences analysis measures the arithmetic fluency of participants and their accuracy on a new estimation assessment, and finds that higher estimation ability may be a "protective factor" against some anchoring effects. These findings affirm the anchoring effect of Tversky and Kahneman (1973, Study 6) while suggesting that calibration may be an effective strategy for helping to improve people's estimation of superlinear functions that are important in real-life contexts. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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