Development and validation of a model to predict the progression of Alzheimer's disease.

Background Cognition monitoring is crucial for care planning in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's dementia (AD). Objective To develop a machine learning model to assist cognition monitoring. Design Florey Fusion Model (FFM) was constructed and validated in two phases: (i) m...

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Publicado en:Age & Ageing Vol. 54; no. 7; pp. 1 - 11
Autores principales: Chu, Chenyin, Wang, Yihan, Huynh, Andrew L H, Ng, Ka Weng, Liu, Shu, Ji, Guangyan, Doecke, James, Fripp, Jurgen, Masters, Colin L, Goudey, Benjamin, Jin, Liang, Pan, Yijun
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Jul2025
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: Jul2025
      vid: 54
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      pub: Oxford University Press / USA
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        10.1093/ageing/afaf198
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        atl: Development and validation of a model to predict the progression of Alzheimer's disease.
      aug:
        au:
          Chu, Chenyin
          Wang, Yihan
          Huynh, Andrew L H
          Ng, Ka Weng
          Liu, Shu
          Ji, Guangyan
          Doecke, James
          Fripp, Jurgen
          Masters, Colin L
          Goudey, Benjamin
          Jin, Liang
          Pan, Yijun
        affil:
          Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
          Department of Medicine, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
          Florey Department of Neuroscience and Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
          Florey Institutes of Neuroscience and Mental Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
          Australian E-Health Research Centre, CSIRO, Herston, Queensland, Australia
          Australian Biocommons, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria, Australia
      su:
        Australia
        Risk assessment
        Random forest algorithms
        Alzheimer's disease
        Prediction models
        Mild cognitive impairment
        Cognitive testing
        Research funding
        Receiver operating characteristic curves
        Questionnaires
        Descriptive statistics
        Support vector machines
        Simulation methods in education
        Machine learning
        Comparative studies
        Disease progression
      sug:
        subj:
          Australia
          Risk assessment
          Random forest algorithms
          Alzheimer's disease
          Prediction models
          Mild cognitive impairment
          Cognitive testing
          Research funding
          Receiver operating characteristic curves
          Questionnaires
          Descriptive statistics
          Support vector machines
          Simulation methods in education
          Machine learning
          Comparative studies
          Disease progression
      keyword:
        cognition monitoring
        machine learning
        mild cognitive impairment
        older people
        cognition monitoring
        machine learning
        mild cognitive impairment
        older people
      ab: Background Cognition monitoring is crucial for care planning in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's dementia (AD). Objective To develop a machine learning model to assist cognition monitoring. Design Florey Fusion Model (FFM) was constructed and validated in two phases: (i) model development and cross-validation using data collected via the Australian Imaging, Biomarker, and Lifestyle of Ageing (AIBL) study, and (ii) simulation and missing data trials with 30 new participants. Methods This prognostic study recruited 238 participants in the AIBL study. Support vector machine, gradient boosting and random forest were trialled to develop the FFM. Cognitive decline was assessed via changes in Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. Model performance was evaluated by cross validation and compared against baseline models. Results The FFM achieved a median area under receive character curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.91 (IQR 0.87–0.93) for MCI-to-AD progression prediction. A mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.32 (IQR 1.30–1.33) for CDR-SB and 1.51 (IQR 1.50–1.52) for MMSE was achieved for 3-year cognition forecast. Simulation and missing data trials yielded up to 94% accuracy for MCI-to-AD conversion and MAEs of 1.27–2.12 for CDR-SB score prediction. Conclusion The FFM holds the potential to facilitate cognition monitoring in people with MCI/AD; however, a larger trial will be required to refine it as a clinical grade tool.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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