Alan Author strikes again: More on confirming conjunctions of disconfirmed hypotheses.
The so-called Alan Author Effect is a surprising phenomenon in Bayesian Confirmation Theory. It occurs when a piece of evidence e confirms the conjunction of two hypotheses h 1 ∧ h 2 but at the same time disconfirms each hypothesis h 1 and h 2 individually. In this paper, I present a new and prima f...
| Publicado en: | Analysis Vol. 85; no. 2; pp. 359 - 370 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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Oxford University Press / USA
Apr2025
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=hlh&AN=189001515&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: hlh uiTerm: 189001515 longDbName: Humanities International Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00032638 7OX jtl: Analysis issn: 00032638 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Apr2025 vid: 85 iid: 2 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 189001515 10.1093/analys/anad103 ppf: 359 ppct: 11 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P size: 1.1MB tig: atl: Alan Author strikes again: More on confirming conjunctions of disconfirmed hypotheses. aug: au: Koscholke, Jakob affil: Goethe-University Frankfurt Germany su: Hypothesis Monte Carlo method Probability theory Theory of knowledge Logic sug: subj: Hypothesis Monte Carlo method Probability theory Theory of knowledge Logic keyword: Bayesian Confirmation Theory conjunction Monte Carlo simulation probability ab: The so-called Alan Author Effect is a surprising phenomenon in Bayesian Confirmation Theory. It occurs when a piece of evidence e confirms the conjunction of two hypotheses h 1 ∧ h 2 but at the same time disconfirms each hypothesis h 1 and h 2 individually. In this paper, I present a new and prima facie stronger version of this effect where additionally, the evidence e confirms the conjunction of the negated hypotheses ¬ h 1 ∧ ¬ h 2 . I say 'prima facie' because it can be shown that this seemingly stronger effect and the original effect are actually coextensional. I use this insight to formulate a new sufficient (and also necessary) condition for the two equivalent effects. I also examine how likely the two effects are to occur with the help of Monte Carlo simulation methods. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: Y custom: © 2019 The Analysis Trust. item: Analysis holder: Oxford University Press / USA dt: @attributes: year: 2025 holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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