Predicting 5-year-olds mental health at birth: development and internal validation of a multivariable model using the prospective ELFE birth cohort.
We developed and internally validated a multivariable model to be used in the perinatal period, to predict 5-year-olds mental health, using the ELFE prospective French multicentre birth cohort (n=9768). Twenty-six candidate predictors were used, spanning pre-pregnancy maternal health, pregnancy-spec...
| Publicado en: | European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry Vol. 34; no. 10; pp. 3185 - 3197 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , |
| Formato: | research tables/charts Journal Article |
| Publicado: |
Springer Nature
Oct2025
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ccm&AN=189168606&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ccm uiTerm: 189168606 longDbName: CINAHL Complete uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: dissinfo: jinfo: jid: 10188827 EJ3 jtl: European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry issn: 10188827 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Oct2025 vid: 34 iid: 10 pid: 237 pub: Springer Nature place: New York, New York artinfo: ui: 189168606 185145021 189168606 189168606 10.1007/s00787-025-02730-9 189168606 ppf: 3185 ppct: 12 formats: fmt: – @attributes: type: T – @attributes: type: P tig: atl: Predicting 5-year-olds mental health at birth: development and internal validation of a multivariable model using the prospective ELFE birth cohort. aug: au: Butler, Emma Spirtos, Michelle O' Keeffe, Linda M. Clarke, Mary affil: https://ror.org/01hxy9878 Department of Population Health, Royal College of Surgeons Ireland, Dublin, Ireland sug: subj: Mental Health In Infancy and Childhood Perinatal Period Child Development Child Health Social Determinants of Health Prediction Models Mental Disorders Risk Factors Risk Assessment Human Male Female Child, Preschool Prospective Studies Descriptive Statistics France Self Report Structural Equation Modeling Coefficient alpha Maternal Age Educational Status Interpersonal Relations Economic Status Parent-Child Relations Confidence Intervals Intensive Care Units, Neonatal Questionnaires Child, Preschool: 2-5 years Male Female ab: We developed and internally validated a multivariable model to be used in the perinatal period, to predict 5-year-olds mental health, using the ELFE prospective French multicentre birth cohort (n=9768). Twenty-six candidate predictors were used, spanning pre-pregnancy maternal health, pregnancy-specific-experiences, birth factors and sociodemographic risk (maternal age, education, relationship, migrancy and family income). The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire total score at 5-years, dichotomised at the recommended cut-off (16), was the outcome. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selector Operator followed by bootstrapping was used. High and low-risk was classified by ≥8% risk-threshold score. Stability of the model at population- and individual-level and model performance across groups of interest (sex, sociodemographic risk and neonatal intensive care admissions) was also examined. 10 variables (total number pregnancy-specific experiences, sociodemographic risk, maternal pre-existing hypertension and psychological difficulties, gravidity, maternal mental health problems in a previous pregnancy, smoking and alcohol use in current pregnancy, how labour started and infant sex) with a C-statistic of 0.67; 95%CI (0.64-0.69) predicted mental health. The positive and negative predictive value were 12% & 95.4% respectively, leading to 78.8% of children correctly classified. Model performance was similar across groups of interest but increased for children (born ≥33-weeks-gestation) with neonatal admissions (AUC 0.78; 95%CI (0.69-0.87)). This model is most useful for identifying low-risk children. Applying this model in a tiered preventative intervention framework could be beneficial with those predicted to be high-risk receiving further screening to determine the level of intervention required. External validation and implementation research are required before considering its use in practice. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: research tables/charts Journal Article ougenre: Article language: English refInfo: holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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