IQ, Genes, and Miscalibrated Expectations.
Almost all formal models of decision making under uncertainty require agents to judge the likelihood of relevant uncertainties. Typically, decisions are best made when these judgments are accurate. In the context of probabilistic subjective survival expectations, from a nationally representative Eng...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Personality & Social Psychology Vol. 129; no. 6; pp. 1185 - 1202 |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
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American Psychological Association
Dec2025
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=189683744&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 189683744 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00223514 JSS jtl: Journal of Personality & Social Psychology issn: 00223514 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2025 vid: 129 iid: 6 pid: 34 pub: American Psychological Association artinfo: ui: 189683744 10.1037/pspp0000567 ppf: 1185 ppct: 17 formats: tig: atl: IQ, Genes, and Miscalibrated Expectations. aug: au: Dawson, Chris affil: School of Management, University of Bath su: Intelligence levels Decision making Genes Cognitive bias Uncertainty (Information theory) Sampling errors Mendelian randomization sug: subj: Intelligence levels Decision making Genes Cognitive bias Uncertainty (Information theory) Sampling errors Mendelian randomization keyword: forecast errors genetic variants intelligence polygenic scores forecast errors genetic variants intelligence polygenic scores ab: Almost all formal models of decision making under uncertainty require agents to judge the likelihood of relevant uncertainties. Typically, decisions are best made when these judgments are accurate. In the context of probabilistic subjective survival expectations, from a nationally representative English sample of participants aged over 50 (N = 3,946), we test whether IQ is associated with calibration. We find strong evidence that high-IQ respondents make substantially lower forecast errors and produce less noise in their predictions than low-IQ respondents. These results are confirmed when we leverage the randomness in genetic variants linked to IQ as an instrumental variable (Mendelian randomization) and when directly using participants' genetic variants related to educational attainment—that captures IQ as well as other cognitive and noncognitive traits relevant to educational success. These results highlight important channels through which IQ contributes to beliefs about the world and may explain why low IQ is often linked to poor financial decision making, lower economic growth and economic welfare, and judgmental biases. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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