Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve.
We review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve, paying particular attention to the issue of weak identification. Our goal is to provide a clear understanding of the role of expectations that integrates across the di...
| Publicado en: | Journal of Economic Literature Vol. 63; no. 4; pp. 124 - 189 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Literature Review |
| Publicado: |
American Economic Association
Dec2025
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=189711995&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 189711995 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00220515 JEL jtl: Journal of Economic Literature issn: 00220515 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Dec2025 vid: 63 iid: 4 pid: 22 pub: American Economic Association artinfo: ui: 189711995 10.1257/jel.52.1.124 ppf: 124 ppct: 65 formats: tig: atl: Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. aug: au: Mavroeidis, Sophocles Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel Stock, James H. affil: University of Oxford and INET at Oxford Harvard University su: Econometrics Phillips curve Inflation forecasting Sampling errors Estimation theory sug: subj: Econometrics Phillips curve Inflation forecasting Sampling errors Estimation theory ab: We review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve, paying particular attention to the issue of weak identification. Our goal is to provide a clear understanding of the role of expectations that integrates across the different papers and specifications in the literature. We discuss the properties of the various limited-information econometric methods used in the literature and provide explanations of why they produce conflicting results. Using a common dataset and a flexible empirical approach, we find that researchers are faced with substantial specification uncertainty, as different combinations of various a priori reasonable specification choices give rise to a vast set of point estimates. Moreover, given a specification, estimation is subject to considerable sampling uncertainty due to weak identification. We highlight the assumptions that seem to matter most for identification and the configuration of point estimates. We conclude that the literature has reached a limit on how much can be learned about the New Keynesian Phillips curve from aggregate macroeconomic time series. New identification approaches and new datasets are needed to reach an empirical consensus. (JEL C51, D84, E12, E24, E31) pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Literature Review src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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