Probabilistic risk assessment and scenario analysis of ambient PM2.5 in Bangkok for short-term respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

This study presents a four-year analysis of cardiopulmonary hospital admissions related to PM2.5 exposure in Bangkok to assess the short-term effects of air pollution on health. The Monte Carlo simulation-based AirQ+ model was employed to estimate hospital admissions attributable to various PM2.5 co...

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Published in:International Journal of Environmental Health Research Vol. 35; no. 12; pp. 4036 - 4051
Main Authors: Tesfaldet, Yacob T., Chanpiwat, Penradee
Format: equations & formulas pictorial tables/charts Journal Article
Published: Taylor & Francis Ltd Dec2025
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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        09603123
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      jtl: International Journal of Environmental Health Research
      issn: 09603123
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      dt: Dec2025
      vid: 35
      iid: 12
      pid: 377
      pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd
      place: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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        10.1080/09603123.2025.2508891
        189731014
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        atl: Probabilistic risk assessment and scenario analysis of ambient PM2.5 in Bangkok for short-term respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
      aug:
        au:
          Tesfaldet, Yacob T.
          Chanpiwat, Penradee
        affil: International Program in Hazardous Substance and Environmental Management, Graduate School, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
      sug:
        subj:
          Particulate Matter Adverse Effects
          Air Pollutants Adverse Effects
          Respiratory Tract Diseases Risk Factors
          Cardiovascular Risk Factors
          Hospitalization
          Risk Assessment
          Human
          Thailand
          Nonexperimental Studies
          Time Series
          Models, Statistical
          Air Pollution, Indoor
          Seasons
          Weather
          Humidity
          Nitrogen Oxides
          Population Surveillance
          Ozone
          World Health Organization
          Public Health
          Confidence Intervals
          Statistical Significance
          Data Analysis Software
          Descriptive Statistics
          Funding Source
      ab: This study presents a four-year analysis of cardiopulmonary hospital admissions related to PM2.5 exposure in Bangkok to assess the short-term effects of air pollution on health. The Monte Carlo simulation-based AirQ+ model was employed to estimate hospital admissions attributable to various PM2.5 concentrations. The average PM2.5 concentration was 40 ± 17 µg/m3. The monthly median contribution of PM2.5 to total particulate matter pollution ranged from 0.40 to 0.60. Individuals were exposed to PM2.5 levels classified as "unhealthy for sensitive groups" (36–56 µg/m3) or "unhealthy for all" (57–150 µg/m3) on approximately 50% days annually). Cardiopulmonary admissions peaked during the winter, with 5,755 to 7,000 respiratory cases and approximately 7,000 cardiovascular cases, while both conditions were least prevalent in the summer (respiratory: 4,000; cardiovascular: 5,300). The PM2.5 concentrations mirrored this seasonal pattern, reaching approximately 50 µg/m3 in winter and decreasing to approximately 25 µg/m3 in summer. The AirQ+ simulation estimated that PM2.5 exposure exceeding 15 µg/m3 was associated with 3,306 (95% CI: 0 –15,841) additional respiratory cases and 1,497 (95% CI: 701–6,723) additional cardiovascular cases. Conversely, a 5 µg/m3 reduction in PM2.5 levels could lead to a 22% decrease in hospital admissions for cardiopulmonary diseases, whereas a 5 µg/m3 increase could result in a 16% increase in hospitalizations.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype:
        equations & formulas
        pictorial
        tables/charts
        Journal Article
      ougenre: Article
    language: English
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