| Sumario: | This study aims to perform cartographic modeling of lake area changes in Iraq, taking Tharthar Lake and Mosul Dam Lake as case studies. It involves tracking and analyzing the spatial and temporal changes in the water surface area of these lakes from 1985 to 2025. The analysis is based on satellite data from the Landsat missions, utilizing MSS, TM, ETM+, and OLI sensors, which offer suitable spatial and temporal resolution for long-term environmental monitoring. The study also aims to develop a predictive model using Markov Chain techniques and Cellular Automata algorithms within the TerrSet software environment to simulate future trends in lake area changes for the years 2030 and 2040. The modeling results revealed that both Mosul Dam Lake and Tharthar Lake have experienced significant fluctuations and reductions in their water surface areas, primarily due to climatic changes, water resource management practices, and various anthropogenic and geomorphological factors. In 1985, the area of Mosul Dam Lake was at its lowest due to the initial filling of the new dam, followed by a gradual increase until 1995, driven by reservoir saturation and stable discharges. Subsequently, the lake area saw declines and variability due to climatic fluctuations and increasing water demand.Projections for 2025 indicate a sharp reduction in water surface area as a result of decreased Tigris River inflows and increasing water stress, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive water resource management to preserve the lake. Predictions for 2030 and 2040 suggest a continued decline in lake areas if current conditions persist without effective intervention. In light of these findings, the study recommends integrating the modeling results into water resource management plans and regularly updating data to monitor the impacts of climate change and water policies on Iraqi lakes.
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