Error Statistics Using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria.

Many biologists, especially in ecology and evolution, analyze their data by estimating fits to a set of candidate models and selecting the best model according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). When the candidate models represent alternative hypoth...

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Publicado en:Erkenntnis Vol. 91; no. 1; pp. 379 - 409
Autores principales: Cheng, Henrique, Sterner, Beckett
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Springer Nature Jan2026
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Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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        atl: Error Statistics Using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria.
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          Cheng, Henrique
          Sterner, Beckett
        affil:
          https://ror.org/04wzb3z02 Exponent, Inc., 23445 North 19th Ave, 85027, Phoenix, AZ, USA
          https://ror.org/03efmqc40 School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, 427 East Tyler Mall, 85281, Tempe, AZ, USA
      su:
        Akaike information criterion
        Neyman-Pearson theorem
        Statistical errors
        Philosophy of science
        Life sciences
      sug:
        subj:
          Akaike information criterion
          Neyman-Pearson theorem
          Statistical errors
          Philosophy of science
          Life sciences
      ab: Many biologists, especially in ecology and evolution, analyze their data by estimating fits to a set of candidate models and selecting the best model according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). When the candidate models represent alternative hypotheses, biologists may want to limit the chance of a false positive to a specified level. Existing model selection methodology, however, allows for only indirect control over error rates by setting a threshold for the difference in AIC scores. We present a novel theoretical framework for parametric Neyman-Pearson (NP) model selection using information criteria that does not require a pre-data null and applies to three or more non-nested models simultaneously. We apply the theoretical framework to the Error Control for Information Criteria (ECIC) procedure introduced by Cullan et al. (J Appl Stat 47: 2565–2581, 2019), and we show it shares many of the desirable properties of AIC-type methods, including false positive and negative rates that converge to zero asymptotically. We discuss implications for the compatibility of evidentialist and severity-based approach to evidence in philosophy of science.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
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    language: English
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