Variation in Outcomes of Mandated Child Welfare Referrals in Norway.

We use administrative register data from the Norwegian child welfare service (CWS) to analyse the outcomes of 252 144 CWS referrals received between 2014 and 2020. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we document extensive and systematic variation across time, across referral sources and across refe...

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Published in:Child & Family Social Work Vol. 31; no. 1; pp. 550 - 566
Main Authors: Rogeberg, Ole, Hernæs, Øystein, Sønderskov, Mette, Ødegaard, Terje
Format: research tables/charts Journal Article
Published: Wiley-Blackwell Feb2026
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: Feb2026
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      pub: Wiley-Blackwell
      place: Malden, Massachusetts
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        10.1111/cfs.13308
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      tig:
        atl: Variation in Outcomes of Mandated Child Welfare Referrals in Norway.
      aug:
        au:
          Rogeberg, Ole
          Hernæs, Øystein
          Sønderskov, Mette
          Ødegaard, Terje
        affil: The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Oslo, Norway
      sug:
        subj:
          Child Welfare Norway
          Referral and Consultation Evaluation
          Outcomes (Health Care) Norway
          Child Abuse Prevention and Control
          Human
          Funding Source
          Norway
          Descriptive Statistics
          Confidence Intervals
          Norwegians
          Nonexperimental Studies
          Data Analysis Software
          Police
          Teachers
          Dentists
          Child Abuse, Sexual
          Dental Hygiene
      ab: We use administrative register data from the Norwegian child welfare service (CWS) to analyse the outcomes of 252 144 CWS referrals received between 2014 and 2020. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, we document extensive and systematic variation across time, across referral sources and across referral concerns. Defining high severity cases as cases in which the CWS seeks mandatory interventions, mandated and nonmandated reporters have similar substantiation rates, but this shared probability declines by half across our data period. The differences in substantiation rates across reporting sources persist when comparing referrals with identical referral concerns. Drawing on the extant literature, we suggest that occupational groups may have evolved diverging reporting practices as a consequence of vague official guidelines combined with a lack of systematic training in identifying relevant cues of maltreatment. We also highlight a possible tension in the Norwegian system: while the family‐oriented Norwegian CWS largely opens cases based on referrals, its aim is to work preventively and voluntarily with families before issues reach the severity covered by existing reporting mandates.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
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        research
        tables/charts
        Journal Article
      ougenre: Article
    language: English
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