Machine learning prediction of conduct problems in children using the longitudinal ABCD study.

Background: Children with conduct problems are at elevated risk for negative psychosocial, educational, and behavioral outcomes. Identifying at‐risk children can aid in providing timely intervention and prevention, ultimately improving their long‐term outcomes. There is a need to develop screening t...

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Published in:Journal of Child Psychology & Psychiatry Vol. 67; no. 3; pp. 390 - 400
Main Authors: Berluti, Kathryn, Amormino, Paige, Potter, Alexandra, Wshah, Safwan, Marsh, Abigail
Format: Article
Published: Wiley-Blackwell Mar2026
Subjects:
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: Mar2026
      vid: 67
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      pub: Wiley-Blackwell
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        191429003
        10.1111/jcpp.70057
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        atl: Machine learning prediction of conduct problems in children using the longitudinal ABCD study.
      aug:
        au:
          Berluti, Kathryn
          Amormino, Paige
          Potter, Alexandra
          Wshah, Safwan
          Marsh, Abigail
        affil:
          Department of Psychology, Georgetown University, Washington DC,, USA
          Department of Psychological Science, University of Vermont, Burlington VT,, USA
          Department of Computer Science, University of Vermont, Burlington VT,, USA
      su:
        Elementary schools
        Behavior disorders in children
        Prediction models
        Receiver operating characteristic curves
        Descriptive statistics
        Child Behavior Checklist
        Research
        Machine learning
        Oppositional defiant disorder in children
      sug:
        subj:
          Elementary schools
          Behavior disorders in children
          Elementary and Secondary Schools
          Prediction models
          Receiver operating characteristic curves
          Descriptive statistics
          Child Behavior Checklist
          Research
          Machine learning
          Oppositional defiant disorder in children
      keyword:
        ABCD study
        Conduct disorder
        conduct problems
        machine learning
        ABCD study
        Conduct disorder
        conduct problems
        machine learning
      ab: Background: Children with conduct problems are at elevated risk for negative psychosocial, educational, and behavioral outcomes. Identifying at‐risk children can aid in providing timely intervention and prevention, ultimately improving their long‐term outcomes. There is a need to develop screening tools to better identify at‐risk children who may benefit from early intervention. Methods: Data were collected from the longitudinal Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. Children completed a baseline visit at age 9–10, then returned annually for 3 years (n = 3,517). We used machine learning classifiers (logistic regression, Naïve Bayes, support vector machine, and random forest) to predict conduct problems (i.e., conduct disorder or oppositional defiant disorder) in children after 1, 2, and 3 years. Results: The best‐performing model (the random forest classifier) predicted children at risk for conduct problems with an accuracy of 90% or greater (AUC = 0.98 at 1 year, AUC = 0.97 at 2 years, AUC = 0.97 at 3 years). A random forest classifier simplified to include only 10 features was able to predict conduct problems nearly as well (AUC = 0.97 at 1 year, AUC = 0.96 at 2 years, AUC = 0.97 at 3 years). Conclusions: Using factors previously linked to conduct problems, we built machine learning models to identify predictors of conduct problems in children over a 3‐year period. A small number of self‐report features can be used to predict persistent conduct problems with 90% or greater specificity and sensitivity up to 3 years after initial assessment. This suggests that parent and child self‐report data, along with machine learning, can identify children at risk for persistent conduct problems.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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