Public opinion potential: rethinking public preferences and great power alignment in small and medium powers.

What do the populations of small and medium powers think about their countries' relations with China and the United States, and how might their attitudes matter for foreign policy change? In this article, we propose a theory of public opinion potential (POP), conceptualized as the extent to which pu...

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Publicado en:International Affairs Vol. 102; no. 2; pp. 677 - 704
Autores principales: Redeker, Dennis, van der Neut, Bastian, Sturm, Ingmar, Cohausz, Fee-Sofie
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Mar2026
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: Mar2026
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        10.1093/ia/iiaf277
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        atl: Public opinion potential: rethinking public preferences and great power alignment in small and medium powers.
      aug:
        au:
          Redeker, Dennis
          van der Neut, Bastian
          Sturm, Ingmar
          Cohausz, Fee-Sofie
        affil:
          Centre for Media, Communication and Information Research (ZeMKI), University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
          University of St Andrews, School of International Relations, St Andrews, UK
          UCSB, Department of Political Science, Santa Barbara, US
          German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), Hamburg, Germany
      su:
        Venezuela
        Georgia (Republic)
        China
        Brazil
        Haiti
        Public opinion
        International relations
        Public opinion polls
        China-United States relations
        Small states
        Stated preference methods
      sug:
        subj:
          Public opinion
          International relations
          Public opinion polls
          Venezuela
          Georgia (Republic)
          China
          Brazil
          Haiti
          Foreign affairs
          International Affairs
          Marketing Research and Public Opinion Polling
          China-United States relations
          Small states
          Stated preference methods
      keyword:
        copyrightHolder:The Royal Institute of International Affairs
        copyrightYear:2026
        foreign policy
        global South
        inLanguage:en
        International Relations theory
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaf277
        survey methods
        US–China competition
        copyrightHolder:The Royal Institute of International Affairs
        copyrightYear:2026
        foreign policy
        global South
        inLanguage:en
        International Relations theory
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaf277
        survey methods
        US–China competition
      ab: What do the populations of small and medium powers think about their countries' relations with China and the United States, and how might their attitudes matter for foreign policy change? In this article, we propose a theory of public opinion potential (POP), conceptualized as the extent to which public preferences create conditions for change in foreign policy. Drawing on survey data from 9,451 respondents in 30 countries across Africa, the Americas, eastern Europe, south-east Asia and the Middle East, we analyse how people perceive their country's current and desired relations with the two world powers. We measure two dimensions of POP: the preference gap (the difference between perceived and desired relations) and the preference variation (the 'spread' of opinions). Together, these capture the structure of public opinion, which may enable or constrain foreign policy change. We develop a typology with four ideal types of POP and illustrate their implications through the cases of Haiti, Georgia, Brazil and Venezuela. The article contributes to understanding how the structure, rather than just the direction, of public opinion can shape the foreign policy of small and medium powers in the context of the evolving US–China competition.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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