Public opinion potential: rethinking public preferences and great power alignment in small and medium powers.
What do the populations of small and medium powers think about their countries' relations with China and the United States, and how might their attitudes matter for foreign policy change? In this article, we propose a theory of public opinion potential (POP), conceptualized as the extent to which pu...
| Publicado en: | International Affairs Vol. 102; no. 2; pp. 677 - 704 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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Oxford University Press / USA
Mar2026
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=192225185&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 192225185 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00205850 INA jtl: International Affairs issn: 00205850 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Mar2026 vid: 102 iid: 2 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 192225185 10.1093/ia/iiaf277 ppf: 677 ppct: 27 formats: tig: atl: Public opinion potential: rethinking public preferences and great power alignment in small and medium powers. aug: au: Redeker, Dennis van der Neut, Bastian Sturm, Ingmar Cohausz, Fee-Sofie affil: Centre for Media, Communication and Information Research (ZeMKI), University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany University of St Andrews, School of International Relations, St Andrews, UK UCSB, Department of Political Science, Santa Barbara, US German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), Hamburg, Germany su: Venezuela Georgia (Republic) China Brazil Haiti Public opinion International relations Public opinion polls China-United States relations Small states Stated preference methods sug: subj: Public opinion International relations Public opinion polls Venezuela Georgia (Republic) China Brazil Haiti Foreign affairs International Affairs Marketing Research and Public Opinion Polling China-United States relations Small states Stated preference methods keyword: copyrightHolder:The Royal Institute of International Affairs copyrightYear:2026 foreign policy global South inLanguage:en International Relations theory publisher:Oxford University Press sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaf277 survey methods US–China competition copyrightHolder:The Royal Institute of International Affairs copyrightYear:2026 foreign policy global South inLanguage:en International Relations theory publisher:Oxford University Press sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaf277 survey methods US–China competition ab: What do the populations of small and medium powers think about their countries' relations with China and the United States, and how might their attitudes matter for foreign policy change? In this article, we propose a theory of public opinion potential (POP), conceptualized as the extent to which public preferences create conditions for change in foreign policy. Drawing on survey data from 9,451 respondents in 30 countries across Africa, the Americas, eastern Europe, south-east Asia and the Middle East, we analyse how people perceive their country's current and desired relations with the two world powers. We measure two dimensions of POP: the preference gap (the difference between perceived and desired relations) and the preference variation (the 'spread' of opinions). Together, these capture the structure of public opinion, which may enable or constrain foreign policy change. We develop a typology with four ideal types of POP and illustrate their implications through the cases of Haiti, Georgia, Brazil and Venezuela. The article contributes to understanding how the structure, rather than just the direction, of public opinion can shape the foreign policy of small and medium powers in the context of the evolving US–China competition. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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