Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study.
Objectives. To estimate the increase in HIV infections in 11 US states if Ryan White services are interrupted or ended. Methods. We applied a population-level model of HIV transmission to 11 states. We represented the proportion of people with HIV receiving Ryan White AIDS drug assistance, outpatien...
| Publicado en: | American Journal of Public Health Vol. 116; no. 5; pp. 732 - 736 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
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American Public Health Association
May2026
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=192845813&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 192845813 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00900036 APH jtl: American Journal of Public Health issn: 00900036 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: May2026 vid: 116 iid: 5 pid: 44 pub: American Public Health Association artinfo: ui: 192845813 10.2105/AJPH.2025.308409 ppf: 732 ppct: 4 formats: tig: atl: Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study. aug: au: Schnure, Melissa Forster, Ryan Jones, Joyce L. Lesko, Catherine R. Batey, D. Scott Butler, Isolde Ward, Dafina Musgrove, Karen Althoff, Keri N. Jain, Mamta K. Gebo, Kelly A. Dowdy, David W. Shah, Maunank Kasaie, Parastu Fojo, Anthony T. affil: Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD. Tulane School of Social Work, New Orleans, LA. Crescent Care, New Orleans, LA. Southern AIDS Coalition, Birmingham, AL Birmingham AIDS Outreach, Birmingham, AL. UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX. su: Florida New York (State) California Illinois Alabama Wisconsin Missouri Mississippi Texas Georgia Louisiana United States United States. Dept. of Health & Human Services HIV infection transmission Health services accessibility Patient compliance Outpatient medical care Population geography Federal government Government programs Infectious disease transmission Medicaid Drugs Forecasting Medical care costs Government aid laws HIV infection epidemiology Prevention of infectious disease transmission HIV prevention Antiretroviral agents Viral load Research funding HIV-positive persons HIV infections Descriptive statistics Simulation methods in education Research Disease incidence sug: subj: HIV infection transmission Health services accessibility Patient compliance Outpatient medical care Population geography Federal government Government programs Infectious disease transmission Medicaid Drugs Forecasting Medical care costs Florida New York (State) California Illinois Alabama Wisconsin Missouri Mississippi Texas Georgia Louisiana United States United States. Dept. of Health & Human Services Community health centres All Other Outpatient Care Centers All other out-patient care centres Drugs and Druggists' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing Pharmaceuticals and pharmacy supplies merchant wholesalers Administration of Human Resource Programs (except Education, Public Health, and Veterans' Affairs Programs) Administration of Public Health Programs Government aid laws HIV infection epidemiology Prevention of infectious disease transmission HIV prevention Antiretroviral agents Viral load Research funding HIV-positive persons HIV infections Descriptive statistics Simulation methods in education Research Disease incidence ab: Objectives. To estimate the increase in HIV infections in 11 US states if Ryan White services are interrupted or ended. Methods. We applied a population-level model of HIV transmission to 11 states. We represented the proportion of people with HIV receiving Ryan White AIDS drug assistance, outpatient health services, or support services, and simulated a loss of suppression in each category if services permanently end or return after delays of 1.5 or 3.5 years. Results. Cessation of Ryan White services in 2025 was projected to result in 69 695 additional infections from 2025 to 2030 (95% credible interval [CrI] = 18 943, 123 628), 68% more (95% CrI = 18%, 118%) than if Ryan White were continued. Temporary interruptions of 1.5 and 3.5 years resulted in 26 951 (95% CrI = 7341, 47 534) and 53 594 (95% CrI = 14 645, 94 860) additional infections, respectively. Excess infections varied across states, from a 45% increase in Texas to 126% in Missouri. Conclusions. Projected increases in HIV infections because of disruptions of Ryan White services threaten the progress made in curtailing the US HIV epidemic, illustrating the critical role Ryan White plays in preventing HIV transmission. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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