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The 2025 Drug Overdose Spike That Wasn't: Neither Politics nor Data Errors Explain the Anomaly.

The article examines a spike in drug overdose deaths in January 2025 according to estimates by the U.S. National Center for Statistics System (NVSS), which reversed the national downward trend. It discusses the revision of the NVSS algorithm used to account for incomplete autopsies and national proj...

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Published in:American Journal of Public Health Vol. 116; no. 5; pp. 591 - 594
Main Authors: Post, Lori Ann, Ciccarone, Daniel, Lundberg, Alexander Lars, Mason, Maryann, Sharma, Shivangi, Unick, George Jay, Dasgupta, Nabarun
Format: Article
Published: American Public Health Association May2026
Subjects:
United States
Substance abuse
Vital statistics
Public health surveillance
Causes of death
Practical politics
Drug overdose
Serial publications
Statistical models
Acquisition of data
Data quality
Fentanyl
Algorithms
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
Summary:The article examines a spike in drug overdose deaths in January 2025 according to estimates by the U.S. National Center for Statistics System (NVSS), which reversed the national downward trend. It discusses the revision of the NVSS algorithm used to account for incomplete autopsies and national projections that is said to contradict evidence of continuing declines, and the sudden restrictions in other federal data sources. It describes the impact of the opioid fentanyl on the overdose epidemic.