Projected trends in frailty prevalence and associated health service use and costs in the over-50s in England, 2025 to 2040: a simulation modelling study.
Aim To model projected trends in frailty prevalence, associated service use and costs in people aged 50 and over in England to 2040. Design System dynamics simulation modelling. Setting Adult population (aged 50 and over) of England. Participants Routine data from primary care patients aged 50 and o...
| Publicado en: | Age & Ageing Vol. 55; no. 4; pp. 1 - 10 |
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Oxford University Press / USA
Apr2026
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=193500103&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 193500103 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00020729 AGA jtl: Age & Ageing issn: 00020729 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Apr2026 vid: 55 iid: 4 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 193500103 10.1093/ageing/afag109 ppf: 1 ppct: 9 formats: tig: atl: Projected trends in frailty prevalence and associated health service use and costs in the over-50s in England, 2025 to 2040: a simulation modelling study. aug: au: Walsh, Bronagh England, Tracey Brailsford, Sally Fogg, Carole Fraser, Simon Roderick, Paul J Lusignan, Simon de Harris, Scott Clegg, Andrew affil: School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, University Road Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UKNIHR Applied Research Collaboration Wessex Public Health Sciences and Medical Statistics, C floor, South Academic Block, Southampton General Hospital, University of Southampton, Southampton SO166YD, UK Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, Primary Care Health Sciences Radcliffe Observatory Quarter Woodstock Road, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX2 6GG, UK Faculty of Medicine - Primary Care, Population Science and Medical Education, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, UK Academic Unit for Ageing and Stroke Research, University of Leeds, UKBradford Institute for Health Research, Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Duckworth Lane, Bradford, West Yorkshire BD9 6RJ, UK su: England Psychological aspects of aging Computer simulation Policy sciences Mortality Primary health care Outpatient medical care Sex distribution Hospital care Emergency medical services Government aid Rural population Sociodemographic factors Medical care costs Forecasting Critical care medicine Social isolation Labor supply Medical care use Risk assessment Outpatient services in hospitals Research funding Frail elderly Severity of illness index Descriptive statistics Data analysis software Disease incidence Disease progression Medical referrals sug: subj: Psychological aspects of aging Computer simulation Policy sciences Mortality Primary health care Outpatient medical care Sex distribution Hospital care Emergency medical services Government aid Rural population Sociodemographic factors Medical care costs Forecasting Critical care medicine Social isolation Labor supply England All other out-patient care centres All Other Outpatient Care Centers Community health centres Municipal police services Emergency and Other Relief Services Temporary Help Services Medical care use Risk assessment Outpatient services in hospitals Research funding Frail elderly Severity of illness index Descriptive statistics Data analysis software Disease incidence Disease progression Medical referrals keyword: copyrightHolder:British Geriatrics Society copyrightYear:2026 costs frailty health services https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afag109 inLanguage:en older adult older people publisher:Oxford University Press sameAs:https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42054699/ service use simulation copyrightHolder:British Geriatrics Society copyrightYear:2026 costs frailty health services https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afag109 inLanguage:en older adult older people publisher:Oxford University Press sameAs:https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42054699/ service use simulation ab: Aim To model projected trends in frailty prevalence, associated service use and costs in people aged 50 and over in England to 2040. Design System dynamics simulation modelling. Setting Adult population (aged 50 and over) of England. Participants Routine data from primary care patients aged 50 and over (2.2 million individuals) from participating practices from the Royal College of General Practitioners Research Surveillance Centre (RCGP RSC) database between 2006 and 2017. Outcome measures Projected frailty prevalence, primary, secondary and urgent care service use and costs in those aged 50 and over between 2025 and 2040. Results The population of England aged 50 and over is projected to increase from 23.1 million in 2025 to 24 million in 2040. Frailty prevalence in this group will rise from 70.2% to 76.1%, with associated service use costs increasing by £10 billion. Measures to reduce frailty incidence or progression could reduce costs by £310 million/annum and £644 million/annum, respectively. Conclusions Frailty prevalence and associated service use and costs will increase substantially in the ageing population. A shift in focus to prevention and slowing progression in middle age and the younger old would substantially reduce service use and costs by older people living with frailty. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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