Estimating the transition from alcohol drinking onset to alcohol dependence within the first year of use in the United States, 2002–2019.

Background and objectives: Alcohol continues to be one of the most consumed substances worldwide, with unhealthy use on the rise. This study investigates the transition from the first full drink to the onset of alcohol dependence within 12 months among individuals with newly incident alcohol use in...

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Published in:Journal of Substance Use Vol. 31; no. 3; pp. 320 - 325
Main Authors: Walsh, Madison O., Bohnert, Kipling M., Poland, Cara A., Anthony, James C.
Format: research tables/charts Journal Article
Published: Taylor & Francis Ltd Jun2026
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: Jun2026
      vid: 31
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      pub: Taylor & Francis Ltd
      place: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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        10.1080/14659891.2025.2512529
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        atl: Estimating the transition from alcohol drinking onset to alcohol dependence within the first year of use in the United States, 2002–2019.
      aug:
        au:
          Walsh, Madison O.
          Bohnert, Kipling M.
          Poland, Cara A.
          Anthony, James C.
        affil: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
      sug:
        subj:
          Alcohol Drinking Trends
          Alcoholism Trends
          Age of Onset
          Time Factors
          Age Factors
          Behavior, Addictive Evaluation
          Human
          Male
          Female
          Child
          Adolescence
          Adult
          Middle Age
          Aged
          Aged, 80 and Over
          United States
          Persons with Alcoholism
          Trend Studies
          Secondary Analysis
          Cross Sectional Studies
          Comparative Studies
          Descriptive Statistics
          Surveys
          Interviews
          Questionnaires
          Public Health
          Incidence
          Sex Factors
          Data Analysis Software
          Confidence Intervals
          Funding Source
          Child: 6-12 years
          Adolescent: 13-18 years
          Adult: 19-44 years
          Middle Aged: 45-64 years
          Aged: 65+ years
          Aged, 80 & over
          Male
          Female
      ab: Background and objectives: Alcohol continues to be one of the most consumed substances worldwide, with unhealthy use on the rise. This study investigates the transition from the first full drink to the onset of alcohol dependence within 12 months among individuals with newly incident alcohol use in the United States. Methods: Data come from the US National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (2002–2019), encompassing 67,135 participants, with assessments via confidential computer-assisted self-interviews. Newly incident drinkers had their first full drink no more than 12 months before evaluation. Alcohol dependence (AD) was based on criteria from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV). Results: We found that an estimated 1.7% of individuals transition into alcohol dependence within the first year of alcohol use (95% CI = 1.5–1.9). The study includes a diverse age group and emphasizes a shorter transition time between initiation and dependence compared to previous studies. Conclusions: Results reflect the possibility of a rapid transition to dependence within the first year of alcohol use and help identify a high-risk group that could benefit from more specialized public health prevention and intervention strategies.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype:
        research
        tables/charts
        Journal Article
      ougenre: Article
    language: English
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