Multifactor Timing with Deep Learning.

We develop deep neural networks with economically motivated restrictions that are designed to overcome the main challenges of factor timing. Our critical innovations include integrating multitask (MT) learning to capture the common structure across factors, with long short-term memory neural network...

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Publicado en:Journal of Financial Econometrics Vol. 24; no. 3; pp. 1 - 31
Autores principales: Cotturo, Paul, Liu, Fred, Proner, Robert
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA 2026
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: 2026
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        atl: Multifactor Timing with Deep Learning.
      aug:
        au:
          Cotturo, Paul
          Liu, Fred
          Proner, Robert
        affil:
          Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L3G1, Canada
          Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G2W1, CanadaDepartment of Economics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A3K7, Canada
          Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A3K7, CanadaDepartment of Economics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S1A1, Canada
      su:
        Economic indicators
        Long short-term memory
        Deep learning
        Investment management
        Machine learning
        Business forecasting
        Artificial neural networks
      sug:
        subj:
          Economic indicators
          Investment Advice
          Miscellaneous Financial Investment Activities
          Long short-term memory
          Deep learning
          Investment management
          Machine learning
          Business forecasting
          Artificial neural networks
      keyword:
        big data
        C14
        C22
        C45
        C58
        copyrightHolder:Oxford University Press
        copyrightYear:2026
        deep learning
        dynamic multitask neural networks
        economic structure
        factor timing
        G10
        G11
        G12
        G17
        inLanguage:en
        machine learning
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbag006
        big data
        C14
        C22
        C45
        C58
        copyrightHolder:Oxford University Press
        copyrightYear:2026
        deep learning
        dynamic multitask neural networks
        economic structure
        factor timing
        G10
        G11
        G12
        G17
        inLanguage:en
        machine learning
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbag006
      ab: We develop deep neural networks with economically motivated restrictions that are designed to overcome the main challenges of factor timing. Our critical innovations include integrating multitask (MT) learning to capture the common structure across factors, with long short-term memory neural networks to extract financial and macroeconomic states. This dynamic MT neural network outperforms all benchmarks in terms of predictive accuracy and economic gains. We pinpoint unemployment, along with variations on leverage, profitability, and money as key predictors, and highlight the importance of capturing their nonlinear interactions. Improved factor timing through neural networks with economic restrictions facilitates more reliable investigation into the economic mechanisms driving factor risk premia, and underscores the value of deep learning for factor investing.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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