A hierarchical approach to the causality of shipyard accidents with integrated machine learning methods.

Background: The number of shipyard accidents should be reduced by examining the effects of the various demographic and workplace factors on the severity of the accident. Objective: The study examines shipyard accidents and various occupational-behavioral-environmental factors affecting these acciden...

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Published in:Work Vol. 84; no. 3; pp. 735 - 749
Main Authors: Yilmaz, Fatih, Cal, Mural
Format: research tables/charts Journal Article
Published: Sage Publications Inc. Jul2026
Online Access:View this record in EBSCOhost
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      dt: Jul2026
      vid: 84
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      pub: Sage Publications Inc.
      place: Thousand Oaks, California
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        10.1177/10519815261422714
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        atl: A hierarchical approach to the causality of shipyard accidents with integrated machine learning methods.
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        au:
          Yilmaz, Fatih
          Cal, Mural
        affil: Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Occupational Health and Safety, Istanbul Yeni Yuzyil University, Istanbul, Türkiye
      sug:
        subj:
          Accidents, Occupational Evaluation
          Accidents, Occupational Prevention and Control
          Occupational-Related Injuries Prevention and Control
          Machine Learning Methods
          Causality
          Ships
          Human
          Turkiye
          Male
          Female
          Occupational Safety
          Work Environment
          Logistic Regression
          ROC Curve
          Descriptive Statistics
          Structural Equation Modeling
          Health Promotion
          Leadership
          Data Analysis Software
          Accidents, Occupational Risk Factors
          Risk Assessment
          Male
          Female
      ab: Background: The number of shipyard accidents should be reduced by examining the effects of the various demographic and workplace factors on the severity of the accident. Objective: The study examines shipyard accidents and various occupational-behavioral-environmental factors affecting these accidents to find minor accidents (or near-misses) that turned out to be major and to examine the effects of factors on the possible consequences of the accidents, to compare the predicted results with the actual results, and to investigate possible hidden reasons for the occurrence of accidents. Methods: The study uses an accident causality model and conducts experiments with a multi-factor approach on accident causality in the shipbuilding industry through logistic regression and machine learning. It performs an association rules analysis to further enhance the causality model. Results: Machine learning algorithm outputs yielded results that differed significantly from the apparent descriptive distribution of causes of major accidents. Lack of control and audit stands out as the most important accident factor in the occurrence of major accidents. Design errors and lack of training are also two important administrative factors in the occurrence of major accidents. 38.2% of major occupational accidents in shipyards are preventable or can be overcome with minor injury. In 87% of preventable major accidents, the employee had been involved in one or two previous minor incidents. Conclusion: Administrative deficiencies are prominent in major accidents. The main employer's workers and managers are at higher risk in terms of major accident exposure. The effectiveness of safety training should be increased in accordance with the changing working environment and technological conditions.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype:
        research
        tables/charts
        Journal Article
      ougenre: Article
    language: English
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