Supply Chain Disruption and Reorganization: Theory and Evidence From Ukraine's War.

How do localized conflicts disrupt supply chains and prompt firms to reorganize them? How do these forces affect firm-level and aggregate economic activity? Using firm-to-firm Ukrainian railway-shipment data before and during the 2014 Russia–Ukraine conflict, we document that firms with prior suppli...

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Publicado en:Review of Economic Studies Vol. 93; no. 4; pp. 2750 - 2784
Autores principales: Korovkin, Vasily, Makarin, Alexey, Miyauchi, Yuhei
Formato: Artículo
Publicado: Oxford University Press / USA Jul2026
Materias:
Acceso en línea:Ver este registro en EBSCOhost
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      dt: Jul2026
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        10.1093/restud/rdaf080
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        atl: Supply Chain Disruption and Reorganization: Theory and Evidence From Ukraine's War.
      aug:
        au:
          Korovkin, Vasily
          Makarin, Alexey
          Miyauchi, Yuhei
        affil:
          Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona School of Economics, Spain
          MIT Sloan School of Management, USA
          Boston University, USA
      su:
        Ukraine
        Conflict management
        International conflict
        Production (Economic theory)
        Supply chain disruptions
        Russia-Ukraine Conflict, 2014-
        Corporate reorganizations
        Global production networks
        Production quantity
      sug:
        subj:
          Conflict management
          International conflict
          Production (Economic theory)
          Ukraine
          Supply chain disruptions
          Russia-Ukraine Conflict, 2014-
          Corporate reorganizations
          Global production networks
          Production quantity
      keyword:
        Conflict
        copyrightHolder:Review of Economic Studies Ltd
        copyrightYear:2026
        Firm-to-firm trade
        inLanguage:en
        Production networks
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf080
        War
        Conflict
        copyrightHolder:Review of Economic Studies Ltd
        copyrightYear:2026
        Firm-to-firm trade
        inLanguage:en
        Production networks
        publisher:Oxford University Press
        sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf080
        War
      ab: How do localized conflicts disrupt supply chains and prompt firms to reorganize them? How do these forces affect firm-level and aggregate economic activity? Using firm-to-firm Ukrainian railway-shipment data before and during the 2014 Russia–Ukraine conflict, we document that firms with prior supplier and buyer exposure to the conflict areas substantially decreased their output. Simultaneously, firms reorganized their production linkages away from partners directly or indirectly exposed to the conflict shock. We build a general-equilibrium production-network model with endogeneous link formation, and we show that our model's sufficient statistics accurately explains the observed relative decline in firm output once we account for network reorganization. Calibrating our model to the Ukrainian economy, we find that the localized conflict decreased aggregate output in nonconflict areas by 5.5%. This effect increases to 8.4% if we abstract from endogeneous link formation, suggesting that production-network reorganization partially mitigates the detrimental, far-reaching aggregate economic costs of conflicts.
      pubtype: Academic Journal
      doctype: Article
      src: R
    language: English
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