Patents, News, and Business Cycles.
We exploit information in patent applications to construct an instrumental variable for the identification of technology news shocks that relaxes all the identifying assumptions traditionally used in the literature. The instrument recovers news shocks that have no effect on aggregate productivity in...
| Publicado en: | Review of Economic Studies Vol. 93; no. 4; pp. 2819 - 2846 |
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| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Artículo |
| Publicado: |
Oxford University Press / USA
Jul2026
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| Acceso en línea: | Ver este registro en EBSCOhost |
| fields | @attributes: recordID: 1 pdfLink: plink: https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=ssf&AN=195161453&site=ehost-live header: @attributes: shortDbName: ssf uiTerm: 195161453 longDbName: Social Sciences Full Text (H.W. Wilson) uiTag: AN controlInfo: bkinfo: jinfo: jid: 00346527 REM jtl: Review of Economic Studies issn: 00346527 maglogo: N pubinfo: dt: Jul2026 vid: 93 iid: 4 pid: 622 pub: Oxford University Press / USA artinfo: ui: 195161453 10.1093/restud/rdaf086 ppf: 2819 ppct: 27 formats: tig: atl: Patents, News, and Business Cycles. aug: au: Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia Hacıoğlu-Hoke, Sinem Bluwstein, Kristina affil: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, USA and CEPR, UK Federal Reserve Board, USA and CEPR, UK Bank of England, UK su: Business cycles Marginal productivity Macroeconomics Patents Instrumental variables (Statistics) Economic shock Financial markets sug: subj: Business cycles Marginal productivity Macroeconomics Offices of Lawyers All Other Legal Services Investment Banking and Securities Dealing Securities and Commodity Exchanges Patents Instrumental variables (Statistics) Economic shock Financial markets keyword: Business cycle copyrightHolder:Review of Economic Studies Ltd copyrightYear:2026 inLanguage:en Patent applications publisher:Oxford University Press sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf086 SVAR-IV Technology news shocks Business cycle copyrightHolder:Review of Economic Studies Ltd copyrightYear:2026 inLanguage:en Patent applications publisher:Oxford University Press sameAs:https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaf086 SVAR-IV Technology news shocks ab: We exploit information in patent applications to construct an instrumental variable for the identification of technology news shocks that relaxes all the identifying assumptions traditionally used in the literature. The instrument recovers news shocks that have no effect on aggregate productivity in the short-run, but are a significant driver of its trend component. The shock prompts a broad-based expansion in anticipation of the future increase in total factor productivity (TFP), with output, consumption, and investment all rising well before any material increase in TFP is recorded. Despite the positive conditional comovements, the shock only accounts for a modest share of fluctuations of macroeconomic aggregates at business cycle frequencies. Financial markets price-in news shocks on impact, while most of the macro aggregates respond with some delay. pubtype: Academic Journal doctype: Article src: R language: English refInfo: copyright: @attributes: flag: N holdings: @attributes: islocal: N |
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